Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:31:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe06a…ad57 other 132 markets active 2h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,443 (+1%) realized +$1,443 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate21%28W / 104L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$1,343per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$13
14 days+$29
30 days−$115
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$84
politics 38% −$78
sports 14% +$1,593
culture 4% −$9
world 2% −$1
economics 1% −$11
crypto 0% +$1
tech 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.0% -9.5% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 37 -3.7% -12.9% 11% 3% -9.8%
≤90d 85 -11.0% -19.4% 8% 4% -8.9%
all 132 -0.5% -10.0% 21% 10% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 10% -8.8%
10% -18.6% 10% -17.5%
15% -26.4% 9% -25.5%
20% -33.7% 8% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,951) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$9 · ×9.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.61 per $1 lost it wins $2.61
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,443
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses28 / 104
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)132 / 132
History coverage139d
Avg bet$1,343
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 132 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,827 −$2 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $787 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $901 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $2,323 −$3 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $2,168 −$3 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $858 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $346 +$5 +2%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $576 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $4,021 −$4 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $748 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $2,232 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $714 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $2,414 −$4 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $884 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,318 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,735 −$1 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 07 $56 −$56 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $66 +$110 +165%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $2,318 −$3 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $804 −$1 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $700 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $4,524 −$6 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 02 $407 $0 +0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $1,436 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $2,250 −$3 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $3,410 −$4 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $434 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $2,119 −$3 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $435 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 25 $411 −$1 -0%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 25 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 23 $510 −$1 -0%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 22 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 20 $753 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $6,298 −$7 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 10 $1,647 −$3 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 10 $1,686 −$3 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $4,323 −$5 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $1,575 −$3 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $1,607 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,642 −$3 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 07 $3,346 −$4 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $3,211 −$4 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 05 $1,690 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $5,149 −$6 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $3,768 −$5 -0%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 29 $1,062 +$1,408 +133%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $886 1h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $887 2h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $786 21h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $787 24h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $900 25h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $901 29h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $847 46h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $848 2d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $854 2d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $855 2d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $857 3d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $858 3d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $841 4d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $842 4d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $575 4d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $576 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? BUY No 98¢ $346 5d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $789 6d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $790 6d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $747 6d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $748 7d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $690 7d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $691 8d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $713 8d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $714 8d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $783 8d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $784 9d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $883 9d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $884 9d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $883 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 415 history records