Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:23:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E0 0xe06a…ca30 sports 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$510 (+17%) realized +$461 · open +$49
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%7W / 8L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$170per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$73est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$393now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 15d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$687
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -1.9% -11.2% 45% 45% +17.2%
≤30d 15 +9.3% -1.1% 47% 47% +12.0%
≤90d 15 +9.3% -1.1% 47% 47% +12.0%
all 15 +9.3% -1.1% 47% 47% +12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.1% 47% +12.0%
10% -10.6% 47% +1.2%
15% -19.2% 40% -8.5%
20% -27.1% 33% -17.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +61% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$208 vs −$102 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$393
Realized+$461
Unrealized+$49
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses7 / 8
Est. fees paid−$73
Open positions3
Markets (closed)15 / 18
History coverage15d
Avg bet$170
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Set Handicap: Virtanen (-1.5) vs O'Connell (+1.5) OConnell 58¢ 56¢ $196 $188 −$8 (-4%)
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Morocco 31¢ 50¢ $97 $155 +$58 (+60%)
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell Christopher OConnell 35¢ 34¢ $51 $51 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $687 +$258 +38%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $100 −$99 -99%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Ayla Aksu Jun 19 $645 +$391 +61%
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Facundo Acosta Jun 19 $101 −$99 -98%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen Jun 18 $95 −$93 -98%
Set Handicap: Virtanen (-1.5) vs Harris (+1.5) Jun 18 $129 −$127 -99%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $249 +$287 +115%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Elena Micic Jun 18 $53 −$52 -97%
Set Handicap: Bouzkova (-1.5) vs Klugman (+1.5) Jun 18 $91 −$89 -98%
Set Handicap: Korneeva (-1.5) vs Kubka (+1.5) Jun 18 $50 +$62 +124%
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka Jun 18 $97 +$235 +242%
Makarska: Akasha Urhobo vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 04 $258 −$253 -98%
Birmingham: Filippo Romano vs Otto Virtanen Jun 04 $49 −$8 -16%
Tyler: Liam Draxl vs Sebastian Gorzny Jun 04 $14 +$3 +23%
Makarska: Petra Marcinko vs Barbora Palicova Jun 04 $87 +$220 +253%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set Handicap: Virtanen (-1.5) vs O'Connell (+1.5) BUY OConnell 58¢ $17 45m
Set Handicap: Virtanen (-1.5) vs O'Connell (+1.5) BUY OConnell 58¢ $181 45m
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 31¢ $99 47m
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 57¢ $281 1h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Frances Tiafoe 25¢ $94 1h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Frances Tiafoe 26¢ $1 1h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 41¢ $162 1h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Frances Tiafoe 60¢ $363 1h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 45¢ $95 2h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 36¢ $148 2h
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Christopher OConnell 36¢ $24 2h
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Christopher OConnell 34¢ $5 2h
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Christopher OConnell 34¢ $24 2h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 66¢ $100 3h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Ayla Aksu SELL Ayla Aksu 79¢ $179 4h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Ayla Aksu BUY Ayla Aksu 53¢ $122 4h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Ayla Aksu SELL Ayla Aksu 70¢ $328 4h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Ayla Aksu BUY Ayla Aksu 42¢ $99 4h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Ayla Aksu BUY Ayla Aksu 52¢ $128 5h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Ayla Aksu SELL Ayla Aksu 72¢ $530 5h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Ayla Aksu BUY Ayla Aksu 45¢ $95 5h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Ayla Aksu BUY Ayla Aksu 46¢ $101 5h
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Facundo Acosta BUY Michele Ribecai 35¢ $101 12h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Ayla Aksu BUY Ayla Aksu 31¢ $101 12h
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen BUY Billy Harris 25¢ $95 28h
Set Handicap: Virtanen (-1.5) vs Harris (+1.5) BUY Harris 51¢ $47 29h
Set Handicap: Virtanen (-1.5) vs Harris (+1.5) BUY Harris 52¢ $81 29h
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci SELL Raphael Collignon 87¢ $536 29h
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Raphael Collignon 29¢ $99 29h
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Raphael Collignon 52¢ $150 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $393.24 · official $393.25 (match) · 50 history records