Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:03:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E0 0xe065…827d crypto 63 markets active 2h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$185 (+23%) realized +$185 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate52%33W / 30L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$235
14 days+$229
30 days+$215
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% +$233
other 9% +$7
weather 2% −$16
world 2% −$4
sports 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 +13.4% +2.6% 57% 53% +18.7%
≤30d 63 +8.0% -2.3% 52% 49% +15.4%
≤90d 63 +8.0% -2.3% 52% 49% +15.4%
all 63 +8.0% -2.3% 52% 49% +15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.3% 49% +15.4%
10% -11.6% 44% +4.3%
15% -20.2% 43% -5.7%
20% -28.0% 38% -15.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$5 · ×2.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.37 per $1 lost it wins $2.37
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$185
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses33 / 30
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)63 / 63
History coverage18d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 63 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 29 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 29 $82 +$38 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$5 +19%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$16 +63%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$17 +319%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 26 $31 +$55 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 26 $9 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$9 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 25 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$5 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 25 $85 +$58 +68%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $0 $0 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$4 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$54 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$7 +140%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $33 +$5 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $109 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $31 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 4h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 4h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 4h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $3 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 119 history records