Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:20:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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E0 0xe065…aaf4 crypto 726 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 32d only
✗ bot/MM pace (87 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$89 (+1%) realized +$93 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate39%275W / 426L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day86.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$7
14 days−$72
30 days−$268
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$352
other 1% −$9
sports 1% +$42
world 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (87 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -1.8% -11.1% 38% 37% -6.2%
≤30d 561 -2.8% -12.0% 39% 23% -14.2%
≤90d 701 -3.1% -12.3% 39% 23% -13.7%
all 701 -3.1% -12.3% 39% 23% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover86.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 23% -13.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 15% -21.9%
15% -28.4% 9% -29.5%
20% -35.4% 6% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized+$93
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses275 / 426
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions25
Markets (closed)701 / 726
History coverage32d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day86.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 701 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-12%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+15%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-56%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$8 +344%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +70%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 +$56 +1314%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$3 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $7 +$3 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $8 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $7 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $8 2h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $6 8h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 9h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 9h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 9h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 9h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 9h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 24h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 25h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 25h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 25h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 25h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.21 · official $117.27 (match) · 3500 history records