Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:22:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
E0 0xe060…fabe other 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate64%21W / 12L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% −$1
other 20% +$2
politics 20% +$2
sports 16% $0
crypto 4% $0
finance 3% $0
tech 3% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)+30.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -3.6% -12.8% 0% 0% -12.8%
≤30d 3 +418.5% +369.1% 33% 33% -11.0%
≤90d 3 +418.5% +369.1% 33% 33% -11.0%
all 33 +43.8% +30.1% 64% 9% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +30.1% 9% -8.4%
10% +17.6% 9% -17.2%
15% +6.3% 9% -25.2%
20% -4.2% 6% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +44% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +81% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.64 per $1 lost it wins $3.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses21 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage471d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 78¢ 78¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $34 −$1 -4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 27 $1 $0 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 25 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 15 $1 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will Kim Jong Un be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 16 $1 $0 -14%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jun 26 $12 $0 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 12 $9 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times June 6–13? Jun 09 $1 +$2 +126%
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times June 6–13? Jun 09 $10 $0 +4%
Will Giorgia Meloni be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jun 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? Jun 04 $10 $0 +1%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $11 $0 +5%
Will Trump pardon 1,000-1,249 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days? May 06 $16 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1300 on Apr 18? Apr 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 15 $12 $0 -1%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Apr 15 $9 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Apr 15 $3 $0 +6%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? Apr 14 $9 $0 +0%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 13 $12 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Apr 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Călin Georgescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Run Apr 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 24 $15 $0 +1%
Will Trump post 120-129 times on Truth March 7-14? Mar 10 $3 +$1 +47%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 09 $3 $0 +6%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 09 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $36 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $32 5h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $1 5h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $34 8h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 54¢ $34 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 54¢ $23 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 54¢ $6 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 54¢ $5 29d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 29d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 29d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 29d
Will Kim Jong Un be the first leader out in 2025? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 341d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $1 341d
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $12 361d
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $12 375d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $6 375d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $3 375d
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times June 6–13? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 378d
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times June 6–13? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 378d
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times June 6–13? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 378d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $9 378d
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times June 6–13? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 379d
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times June 6–13? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 379d
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times June 6–13? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 379d
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times June 6–13? SELL Yes 28¢ $11 379d
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times June 6–13? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 379d
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times June 6–13? BUY Yes 26¢ $7 379d
Will Giorgia Meloni be the first leader out in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $10 379d
Will Giorgia Meloni be the first leader out in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $10 380d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.11 · official $36.11 (match) · 116 history records