Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:38:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe05e…87e8 crypto 1446 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$624 (+1%) realized +$502 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate94%1363W / 84L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day60.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$157
7 days+$180
14 days+$363
30 days+$489
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$502
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 374 +1.4% -8.3% 94% 23% -8.3%
≤30d 1362 +1.5% -8.1% 94% 28% -8.5%
≤90d 1447 +1.5% -8.1% 94% 28% -8.5%
all 1447 +1.5% -8.1% 94% 28% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.1% 28% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -16.9% 1% -17.2%
15% -25.0% 0% -25.2%
20% -32.3% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$30 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$502
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses1363 / 84
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1447 / 1446
History coverage34d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day60.1
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1447 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Down 95¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $38 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $38 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $38 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $36 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $39 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $35 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $39 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $37 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $38 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $39 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $39 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $37 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $36 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $36 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $32 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $38 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $38 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $36 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $39 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $37 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $37 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $38 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $38 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $36 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $38 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $38 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $37 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $39 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $36 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $32 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $39 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $36 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $38 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $36 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $36 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $38 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $39 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $37 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $39 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $38 +$2 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $38 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $38 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $36 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $39 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $39 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $35 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $39 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $37 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $17 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $21 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $39 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $38 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $6 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $18 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $9 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $37 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $36 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $36 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $32 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $33 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $28 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $8 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $38 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.46 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records