Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:04:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E0 0xe05c…caba sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$435 (-34%) realized −$457 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$256per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$526now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$282
other 36% −$134
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-44.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -39.1% -44.9% 33% 33% -60.9%
≤30d 3 -39.1% -44.9% 33% 33% -60.9%
≤90d 3 -39.1% -44.9% 33% 33% -60.9%
all 3 -39.1% -44.9% 33% 33% -60.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.9% 33% -60.9%
10% -50.2% 33% -64.6%
15% -55.0% 33% -68.0%
20% -59.4% 33% -71.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -57% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -57% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$151 vs −$294 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$526
Realized−$457
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$256
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Côte dIvoire 58¢ 60¢ $252 $263 +$11 (+4%)
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Curaçao 59¢ 62¢ $252 $263 +$11 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $285 −$285 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $182 +$151 +83%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $303 −$303 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 59¢ $255 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 58¢ $255 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 54¢ $182 21h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 43¢ $285 22h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 65¢ $303 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $525.64 · official $525.64 (match) · 8 history records