Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:23:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E0 0xe05c…6ac6 other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 31d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$189 (+23%) realized +$191 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +60% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +45% what you keep after slip
Net edge+45%after slip
Net WR78%break-even
Win rate78%7W / 2L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$188now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$135
7 days+$105
14 days+$155
30 days+$168
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% +$153
sports 2% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +78%
net ROI/market (all)+45.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +31.3% +18.8% 67% 67% +7.3%
≤30d 8 +56.3% +41.4% 75% 75% +15.2%
≤90d 9 +60.4% +45.1% 78% 78% +16.1%
all 9 +60.4% +45.1% 78% 78% +16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +45.1% 78% +16.1%
10% +31.2% 78% +5.0%
15% +18.5% 78% -5.1%
20% +6.9% 56% -14.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +60% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$54 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.63 per $1 lost it wins $2.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$188
Realized+$191
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses7 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage31d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 62¢ 61¢ $189 $188 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 25 $200 −$8 -4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $85 +$114 +134%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $57 +$28 +50%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $39 +$18 +46%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $86 +$54 +62%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $37 +$50 +134%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 01 $10 +$13 +129%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 25 $10 +$9 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $192 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 60¢ $192 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $200 14h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $85 36h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $57 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $57 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $39 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $86 6d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $37 8d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $10 27d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs SELL G2 Esports 100¢ $20 30d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 51¢ $10 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $187.51 · official $187.51 (match) · 19 history records