Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:43:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe05a…0b3b politics 87 markets active 2h ago coverage 697d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate2%2W / 85L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$185per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 95% −$16
other 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% $0
sports 0% $0
world 0% −$2
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 87 -4.4% -13.5% 2% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -21.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -29.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

697d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses2 / 85
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)87 / 87
History coverage697d
Avg bet$185
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 87 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 27 $58 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $58 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $58 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $58 $0 -1%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 09 $58 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 09 $59 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 04 $59 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Mar 26 $59 $0 +0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 17 $59 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 15 $59 $0 +0%
Will Juan Manuel Galán win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Mar 12 $59 $0 +0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 10 $59 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Mar 08 $59 $0 +0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 04 $59 $0 -0%
Will Ninjas in Pyjamas win the LPL 2026 season? Feb 25 $57 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 25 $57 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Feyenoord win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Julius Randle lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Kraken win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Nottingham Forest be relegated? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will C.J. Stroud win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Pump.fun airdrop in 2024? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Monkeypox pandemic in 2024? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Vikings win the NFC North? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will another Trump coin be first to reach $1b? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Berachain not launch a token in 2024? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Argentina dollarize in 2024? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 21 $0 $0 -1%
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 21 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 21 $1 $0 -1%
GOP wins popular vote by 0-1%? Dec 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will Nicolas Jackson be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Dec 10 $0 $0 -1%
Rabby airdrop in 2024? Dec 10 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2024 NBA Cup? Dec 10 $0 $0 -2%
Will the Dolphins win the AFC East? Dec 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Jaguars win the AFC Championship? Dec 10 $4 $0 +0%
ETHBTC above 0.035 on Nov 30? Dec 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow for Treasury Secretary? Nov 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will Caleb Williams win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Nov 18 $1 $0 -2%
Will Puka Nacua be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Nov 18 $0 $0 -0%
Will Jaylen Brown lead the NBA in scoring? Nov 18 $1 $0 -1%
Will Trump nominate Dan Brouillette for Energy Secretary? Nov 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Nice win the UEFA Europa League? Nov 10 $0 $0 -1%
Will the Calgary Flames win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Nov 10 $0 $0 -1%
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the UEFA Champions League? Nov 10 $0 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $58 1h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $58 16h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $58 27d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $58 28d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $58 38d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $58 38d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $58 44d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $58 45d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $58 48d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $58 48d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $59 78d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $59 79d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $59 83d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $59 85d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $59 93d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $59 93d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $59 101d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $59 102d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 99¢ $59 103d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $59 104d
Will Juan Manuel Galán win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $59 106d
Will Juan Manuel Galán win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $30 106d
Will Juan Manuel Galán win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $29 106d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $59 108d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $59 108d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $59 110d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $59 111d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $59 114d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $59 114d
Will Ninjas in Pyjamas win the LPL 2026 season? SELL No 100¢ $57 121d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 185 history records