Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:25:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E0 0xe055…3157 weather 198 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$597 (+11%) realized +$628 · open −$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%89W / 102L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$515
14 days+$302
30 days+$386
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 39% +$56
sports 31% +$83
world 18% +$332
other 11% −$10
crypto 1% −$7
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +5.9% -4.2% 50% 45% +19.4%
≤30d 125 +12.3% +1.6% 45% 43% -1.1%
≤90d 191 +8.5% -1.8% 47% 46% -1.4%
all 191 +8.5% -1.8% 47% 46% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.8% 46% -1.4%
10% -11.2% 46% -10.9%
15% -19.8% 44% -19.5%
20% -27.6% 40% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$19 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$118
Realized+$628
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses89 / 102
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions7
Markets (closed)191 / 198
History coverage52d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 191 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $60 $53 −$7 (-12%)
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Kyoji Horiguchi 41¢ 42¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-19%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-81%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? No 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-91%)
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? No 47¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: ALKA vs ODDIK Academy (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A Jun 17 $20 −$1 -6%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $1 +$2 +171%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 16 $20 +$20 +96%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 16 $51 +$37 +72%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $10 +$13 +128%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 15 $50 +$42 +83%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $121 +$84 +70%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 15 $201 +$93 +46%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $41 +$32 +78%
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $102 +$55 +54%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $10 −$6 -54%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $124 +$101 +81%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $2 +$11 +547%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Morocco? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 13 $26 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $10 +$3 +25%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $23 −$23 -100%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $51 +$21 +41%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$55 +108%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 13 $21 +$54 +261%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $12 +$9 +72%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$20 +196%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 12 $291 +$100 +34%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $105 +$40 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 9? Jun 10 $31 −$31 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $586 −$398 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 8? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 8? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 8? Jun 09 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 8? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 8? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 9? Jun 09 $21 +$18 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kyoji Horiguchi 41¢ $26 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $20 9h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 10h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 2¢ $2 10h
Counter-Strike: ALKA vs ODDIK Academy (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A SELL ODDIK Academy 49¢ $19 19h
Counter-Strike: ALKA vs ODDIK Academy (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A BUY ODDIK Academy 50¢ $20 27h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Game Master 38¢ $10 33h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Spirit Academy 36¢ $1 33h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $1 33h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $20 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $10 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL Yes 63¢ $9 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL Yes 57¢ $11 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 47¢ $50 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 43¢ $10 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY Yes 68¢ $201 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? SELL No 38¢ $11 3d
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 0 Türkiye? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 0 Türkiye? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? BUY Yes 55¢ $41 3d
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 0 Türkiye? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 2 Türkiye? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 3d
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 3 Türkiye? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $25 4d
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.69 · official $118.41 (match) · 454 history records