Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:52:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E0 0xe055…637a other 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL +$1,220 (+10%) realized +$1,139 · open +$81
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +93% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +74% what you keep after slip
Net edge+74%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate45%17W / 21L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$317per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$2,265now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$613
7 days+$1,441
14 days+$1,441
30 days+$1,441
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$335
sports 42% +$932
crypto 1% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+74.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +338.9% +297.1% 77% 62% +6.1%
≤30d 13 +338.9% +297.1% 77% 62% +6.1%
≤90d 38 +92.6% +74.3% 45% 39% +0.4%
all 38 +92.6% +74.3% 45% 39% +0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +74.3% 39% +0.4%
10% +57.6% 37% -9.2%
15% +42.4% 34% -18.0%
20% +28.4% 34% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +93% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late +227% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$37 · ×3.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.47 per $1 lost it wins $2.47
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$2,265
Realized+$1,139
Unrealized+$81
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses17 / 21
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage86d
Avg bet$317
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 98¢ $2,183 $2,265 +$81 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2,227 −$40 -2%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $502 +$72 +14%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $101 +$84 +82%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,903 +$112 +6%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,873 +$96 +5%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 +$18 +88%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 +$173 +1685%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,452 +$199 +14%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $221 +$231 +105%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 13 $101 −$3 -4%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 +$45 +88%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $127 +$555 +438%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $15 +$8 +52%
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to Score May 10 $20 −$3 -17%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? Apr 29 $166 −$22 -13%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $93 −$2 -2%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $300 −$295 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 13 $100 −$4 -4%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $200 +$193 +96%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Apr 04 $120 +$70 +58%
Everton FC vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 21 $89 −$89 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $149 +$37 +25%
FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: Both Teams to Score Mar 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Mar 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Mar 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Mar 21 $10 +$7 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Mar 20 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Mar 20 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Mar 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 20 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Mar 20 $10 +$15 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Mar 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Mar 20 $6 +$6 +107%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $2,187 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 88¢ $2,187 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $2,227 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $574 2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $502 5h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $185 5h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $101 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,015 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,903 13h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 99¢ $1,969 24h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 94¢ $1,873 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 29h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 43¢ $38 29h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 29h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 92¢ $184 30h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 31h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 93¢ $1,640 32h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $145 38h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $905 38h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $402 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $452 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $99 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $98 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 64¢ $96 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $51 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 99¢ $486 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 41¢ $197 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,264.67 · official $2,264.67 (match) · 77 history records