Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:04:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe053…fd08 sports 30 markets active 4d ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$247 (-6%) realized −$247 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate67%20W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$144per market
Trades / day23.4pace
Fees−$101est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$145
14 days−$255
30 days−$269
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$280
other 8% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +18.4% +7.1% 64% 18% -14.6%
≤30d 30 -0.4% -9.9% 67% 20% -15.2%
≤90d 30 -0.4% -9.9% 67% 20% -15.2%
all 30 -0.4% -9.9% 67% 20% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 20% -15.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 10% -23.3%
15% -26.4% 10% -30.7%
20% -33.6% 10% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$47 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$247
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses20 / 10
Est. fees paid−$101
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage19d
Avg bet$144
Trades / day23.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $90 −$88 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $303 −$130 -43%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $406 −$32 -8%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $447 +$39 +9%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $101 +$5 +5%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $203 $0 +0%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $153 +$9 +6%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $502 +$20 +4%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $102 +$1 +1%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $567 +$40 +7%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $110 −$11 -10%
England vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 06 $9 +$8 +99%
Will Romania win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $12 −$4 -36%
Romania vs. Wales: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $276 −$122 -44%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 0.5 Jun 06 $39 −$16 -40%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $100 +$2 +2%
Armenia vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $40 +$5 +12%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $41 +$3 +8%
Hungary vs. Finland: O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $40 +$1 +2%
Hungary vs. Finland: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $56 +$3 +5%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $112 −$51 -46%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $133 +$10 +8%
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $230 +$41 +18%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $63 +$10 +15%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $50 $0 +1%
Greece leading at halftime? Jun 04 $43 +$3 +6%
Will Cyprus win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $20 $0 +1%
Slovenia vs. Cyprus: O/U 1.5 Jun 04 $10 −$2 -18%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $50 $0 +0%
CD Comerciantes Unidos vs. CD Garcilaso: O/U 0.5 May 25 $25 −$15 -60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under $0 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under $0 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under $1 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under $0 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under $0 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under $1 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under $0 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 54¢ $4 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 54¢ $1 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 56¢ $51 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 52¢ $14 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 52¢ $20 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 48¢ $8 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 48¢ $37 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 49¢ $11 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 49¢ $39 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 50¢ $51 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 48¢ $5 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 48¢ $31 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 48¢ $0 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 48¢ $15 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 48¢ $1 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 47¢ $24 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 45¢ $4 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 45¢ $46 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 44¢ $0 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 44¢ $50 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 42¢ $50 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 42¢ $0 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 40¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 452 history records