Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:17:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe050…5b0f world 51 markets active 1d ago coverage 320d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate22%11W / 39L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% −$1
other 12% $0
economics 7% $0
politics 7% +$1
sports 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.0% -8.7% 14% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 16 -0.3% -9.8% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 16 -0.3% -9.8% 12% 0% -9.6%
all 50 +0.3% -9.2% 22% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 2% -9.4%
10% -17.9% 2% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 2% -26.0%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

320d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses11 / 39
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage320d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $31 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $60 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $40 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $61 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $5 $0 +7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $61 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $3 $0 -15%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $52 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $62 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $56 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $88 −$1 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $7 $0 +5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $26 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $56 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Dec 16 $9 $0 +1%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 13 $60 $0 +1%
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Nov 19 $6 −$2 -28%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 21 $6 +$3 +48%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 27 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Aug 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will JD Vance say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" during his remarks to US troop Aug 13 $6 $0 -2%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Aug 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in August? Aug 11 $6 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 11 $6 $0 -0%
Will Robert Negoiță be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 10 $6 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on August 8? Aug 10 $6 $0 +1%
India x Pakistan military clash by Friday? Aug 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 07 $6 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 05 $6 $0 -0%
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2025? Aug 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 05 $6 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Aug 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 04 $6 $0 -0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31? Aug 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Michael McDowell win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 02 $7 $0 -1%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 01 $7 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 01 $7 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 01 $7 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 31 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 31 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $31 28h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $31 28h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $20 30h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $40 30h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $60 33h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 28¢ $13 43h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 28¢ $13 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 28¢ $15 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 28¢ $40 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $50 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $50 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 18¢ $13 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $6 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $55 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $4 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $36 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $21 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 57¢ $21 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 57¢ $40 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 57¢ $3 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 57¢ $42 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 57¢ $15 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $61 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $7 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.51 · official $0.00 (match) · 138 history records