Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:43:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe050…0b6e other 138 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$15 (+0%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate7%10W / 127L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$381per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$28
politics 30% −$20
sports 9% +$63
economics 4% −$2
tech 3% −$1
crypto 1% −$1
world 1% −$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 101 -0.1% -9.6% 1% 0% -9.6%
all 137 +0.4% -9.2% 7% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 4% -9.5%
10% -17.9% 3% -18.2%
15% -25.8% 3% -26.1%
20% -33.1% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×14.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses10 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)137 / 138
History coverage130d
Avg bet$381
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $58 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $698 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $643 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $349 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $236 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $280 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $610 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $240 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $299 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $250 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $789 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 19 $613 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $248 $0 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 17 $601 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $260 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $569 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $288 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 13 $267 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $601 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $309 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $314 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $265 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $298 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $326 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $599 −$1 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 06 $679 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $1,320 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $243 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $301 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $249 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $609 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $282 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $339 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $611 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $355 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $603 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 28 $336 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $281 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $586 −$1 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $265 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $264 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $331 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $293 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $288 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 21 $327 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $359 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $292 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $935 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $321 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $46 1h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $58 1h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $58 6h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $53 6h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $53 10h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $49 18h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $49 7d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $32 7d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $32 17d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $349 22d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $349 26d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $236 26d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $236 27d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $280 28d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $280 28d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $325 28d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $325 28d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $240 28d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $240 29d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $298 29d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $299 29d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $250 30d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $250 30d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $263 30d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $263 31d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $345 31d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $345 32d
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $285 32d
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $285 33d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $248 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.98 · official $45.98 (match) · 434 history records