Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:53:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E0 0xe04d…d6b3 politics 126 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$136 (+0%) realized +$136 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate12%15W / 110L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$38
other 40% −$12
sports 7% +$162
crypto 4% −$1
world 3% −$1
tech 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 113 +1.7% -8.0% 8% 5% -9.4%
all 125 +4.2% -5.8% 12% 8% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 8% -9.2%
10% -14.8% 7% -17.9%
15% -23.0% 7% -25.8%
20% -30.6% 6% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 62% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$3 · ×9.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$136
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses15 / 110
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)125 / 126
History coverage114d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $34 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $34 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $248 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $20 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $23 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $24 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $38 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $248 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $202 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $385 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $225 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $205 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? May 23 $199 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $434 −$1 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $227 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $467 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $454 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $198 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $227 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $224 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $201 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $394 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $430 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $225 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $233 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $79 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $172 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $192 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $189 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $481 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $232 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $178 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $455 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 05 $177 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 04 $179 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $614 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $181 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $469 −$1 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 03 $467 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $250 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 02 $218 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $249 +$231 +93%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 01 $222 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $487 −$254 -52%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $235 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $218 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $253 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 22 $259 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $651 −$1 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $240 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 1h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 1h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 15h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 5d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 7d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 8d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 9d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $20 9d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $20 10d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $28 10d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 11d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 11d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 11d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $24 12d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $24 12d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $38 12d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $38 14d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $248 19d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $248 22d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $202 22d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $202 22d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 22d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $198 22d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $225 22d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $225 24d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $225 24d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $225 24d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $187 25d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $187 25d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $205 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.98 · official $37.98 (match) · 371 history records