Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:42:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe04b…37a8 sports 196 markets active 1d ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$567 (-6%) realized −$584 · open +$17
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%72W / 115L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$185est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$447now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$79
14 days+$2
30 days−$347
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$759
other 14% +$1
politics 2% −$49
tech 1% −$70
world 1% −$58
crypto 0% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -18.2% -26.0% 25% 25% -27.2%
≤30d 121 -17.1% -25.0% 37% 36% -15.1%
≤90d 187 -16.1% -24.1% 39% 37% -19.6%
all 187 -16.1% -24.1% 39% 37% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.1% 37% -19.6%
10% -31.4% 35% -27.3%
15% -38.0% 34% -34.3%
20% -44.1% 31% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$36 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$447
Realized−$584
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses72 / 115
Est. fees paid−$185
Open positions9
Markets (closed)187 / 196
History coverage47d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 187 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $77 $82 +$5 (+7%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 69¢ $41 $73 +$32 (+78%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $81 $63 −$18 (-23%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $42 $55 +$13 (+32%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $42 $39 −$3 (-8%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $33 $36 +$3 (+8%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $42 $32 −$10 (-25%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $16 −$4 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 72 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $17 −$17 -97%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $22 −$21 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $17 −$3 -15%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $38 +$36 +96%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 12 $38 −$2 -6%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $26 +$49 +194%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $38 −$18 -49%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $48 −$13 -27%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $62 −$61 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 11 $38 −$37 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $38 +$33 +88%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 10 $38 −$37 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $38 −$37 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $70 −$34 -48%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 08 $27 +$6 +21%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 08 $28 −$2 -8%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $27 −$1 -4%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $23 −$23 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $28 −$27 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $108 −$25 -23%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $85 +$168 +197%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $63 +$76 +120%
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 04 $37 −$20 -52%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $46 +$37 +80%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 03 $38 +$27 +72%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $33 −$33 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $28 −$6 -22%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $36 +$3 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 28 $31 −$31 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $113 −$36 -32%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 28 $75 −$74 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 27 $17 +$5 +27%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 27 $16 +$7 +42%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians May 27 $30 +$20 +67%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 27 $17 −$7 -45%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $138 −$88 -64%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 27 $25 −$16 -62%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 27 $32 −$3 -10%
Will Sunrisers Hyderabad win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 27 $48 +$2 +4%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 27 $28 +$15 +53%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 27 $27 +$26 +94%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $133 −$6 -4%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $118 −$116 -98%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans - May 26 $28 −$27 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics May 26 $38 +$29 +77%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 26 $118 −$116 -98%
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-05-24? May 26 $27 −$17 -62%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $75 −$74 -98%
Will Los Angeles FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw? May 25 $27 −$26 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $17 32h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 11¢ $26 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $22 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $15 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 10¢ $17 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 94¢ $74 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 35¢ $35 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $38 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $75 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $26 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 15¢ $19 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 28¢ $38 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 10¢ $35 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 13¢ $48 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $38 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 24¢ $17 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 41¢ $38 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 90¢ $71 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $38 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $38 7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 34¢ $45 7d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 33¢ $38 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks $7 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 34¢ $28 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 68¢ $50 8d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays SELL Tampa Bay Rays 62¢ $33 8d
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 49¢ $26 8d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 50¢ $27 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $36 8d
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 52¢ $28 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $447.25 · official $447.26 (match) · 521 history records