Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:16:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe04a…9eb8 sports 247 markets active 1h ago coverage 177d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$63 (-3%) realized −$65 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%94W / 152L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$52
7 days+$92
14 days+$42
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$2
other 13% −$54
world 7% −$9
tech 2% −$13
politics 1% −$1
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +24.0% +12.2% 57% 57% +6.7%
≤30d 62 -11.5% -19.9% 39% 37% -6.6%
≤90d 214 -23.4% -30.7% 34% 32% -17.8%
all 246 -14.8% -22.9% 38% 37% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.9% 37% -13.2%
10% -30.3% 35% -21.5%
15% -37.1% 33% -29.1%
20% -43.2% 28% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

177d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses94 / 152
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)246 / 247
History coverage177d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 246 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Power Rangers 68¢ 100¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $17 +$11 +68%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $21 −$3 -12%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 26 $151 +$32 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 26 $16 −$13 -80%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $71 +$29 +40%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 25 $84 −$5 -6%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $1 +$1 +66%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 24 $62 −$1 -2%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ Jun 24 $20 −$3 -17%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $2 +$2 +76%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $5 +$6 +118%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $10 −$4 -36%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $3 +$2 +52%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $15 +$24 +158%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 4 Winner Jun 23 $10 +$4 +44%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Jun 23 $1 +$2 +188%
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $4 +$7 +172%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $5 +$4 +73%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $16 +$7 +46%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -22%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $4 $0 -6%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -25%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $98 −$5 -5%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $3 +$4 +122%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $6 +$3 +57%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -79%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Dota 2: TeamDk vs Modo Serio - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Team Yandex win BLAST Slam VII? Jun 07 $5 +$6 +114%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $10 +$10 +97%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30? Jun 05 $1 $0 -33%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $10 +$5 +50%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $7 +$3 +42%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $4 +$3 +74%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Jun 02 $3 −$3 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $1 +$2 +179%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 68¢ $4 59m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Power Rangers 70¢ $56 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 68¢ $56 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Power Rangers 60¢ $10 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner SELL Power Rangers 89¢ $28 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 52¢ $17 2h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 76¢ $11 3h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 72¢ $10 4h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Clo SELL Yellow Submarine 87¢ $3 4h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Clo SELL Yellow Submarine 95¢ $74 4h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Yellow Submarine 74¢ $60 4h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Clo SELL Yellow Submarine 79¢ $95 4h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Yellow Submarine 66¢ $81 4h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Clo SELL Yellow Submarine 81¢ $12 4h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 38¢ $7 4h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 52¢ $10 4h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner SELL MODUS 33¢ $1 4h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY MODUS 37¢ $1 5h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 60¢ $10 6h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Yellow Submarine 70¢ $10 6h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 6h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 78¢ $100 6h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 43¢ $20 7h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 61¢ $51 7h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo SELL TEAM VISION 79¢ $80 25h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY TEAM VISION 58¢ $14 26h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY TEAM VISION 91¢ $70 44h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner SELL Power Rangers 17¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 63¢ $31 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.89 · official $5.89 (match) · 682 history records