Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:17:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe049…fe35 other 233 markets active 0h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$71 (-0%) realized −$71 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%13W / 220L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$204per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$12
14 days−$24
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$31
sports 25% −$21
culture 9% −$8
politics 7% −$5
economics 6% −$3
crypto 5% −$13
world 5% −$3
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 71 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 174 -0.3% -9.8% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 233 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses13 / 220
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)233 / 233
History coverage130d
Avg bet$204
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 233 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $302 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $293 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $174 $0 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $278 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $148 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $41 $0 +0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $153 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $125 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $149 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $466 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $229 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $136 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $161 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $331 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $549 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $186 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $124 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $385 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $100 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $502 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $49 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $183 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $224 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $186 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $540 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $221 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $386 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $358 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $456 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $51 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 11 $456 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 11 $441 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $189 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $352 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $225 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $267 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $637 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $318 +$1 +0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $317 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $124 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $534 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $267 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $208 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $394 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $356 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $46 17m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $46 1h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $46 9h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $46 10h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $46 18h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $46 19h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 96¢ $9 21h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 96¢ $9 22h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $47 24h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $47 25h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $47 34h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $47 36h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $31 37h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $31 38h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $47 40h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $47 42h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $47 43h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $47 44h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $47 46h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $47 2d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $47 2d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $47 2d
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 96¢ $36 2d
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 97¢ $11 2d
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 97¢ $48 2d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $48 2d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $48 2d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $48 2d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 2d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $48 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1326 history records