Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:04:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

E0 0xe049…043c other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 22d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$114 (-8%) realized −$114 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip

Net edge-26%after slip

Net WR20%break-even

Win rate20%1W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$270per market

Trades / day0.5pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 22d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +20%

net ROI/market (all)-26.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	-18.2%	-26.0%	20%	20%	-25.8%
≤30d	5	-18.2%	-26.0%	20%	20%	-25.8%
≤90d	5	-18.2%	-26.0%	20%	20%	-25.8%
all	5	-18.2%	-26.0%	20%	20%	-25.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.5 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-26.0%	20%	-25.8%
10%	-33.0%	20%	-32.9%
15%	-39.5%	0%	-39.4%
20%	-45.4%	0%	-45.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -18% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -18% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$47 vs −$73 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.16 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$114

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)20%

Wins / losses1 / 4

Open positions0

Markets (closed)5 / 5

History coverage22d

Avg bet$270

Trades / day0.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 5 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 27	$6	−$2	-25%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 27	$104	−$45	-44%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 27	$103	−$37	-36%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 27	$137	+$47	+34%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 27	$1,000	−$206	-21%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$5	2h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	0¢	$59	2h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	0¢	$66	2h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	3¢	$183	2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$794	2h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$137	14d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$104	18d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$103	18d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$6	21d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$1,000	21d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 32 history records