Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:16:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E0 0xe042…2498 sports 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 28d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$442 (-20%) realized −$327 · open −$115
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$472
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$407
other 12% −$115
culture 11% +$16
crypto 7% −$21
politics 5% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 11 -17.3% -25.1% 45% 45% -31.9%
≤90d 11 -17.3% -25.1% 45% 45% -31.9%
all 11 -17.3% -25.1% 45% 45% -31.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.1% 45% -31.9%
10% -32.3% 45% -38.4%
15% -38.8% 18% -44.4%
20% -44.8% 18% -49.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$134 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$140
Realized−$327
Unrealized−$115
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions3
Markets (closed)11 / 14
History coverage28d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 53¢ 26¢ $150 $75 −$75 (-50%)
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals Yes 27¢ 28¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ $55 $13 −$42 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $305 −$300 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners May 28 $142 +$37 +26%
Will Kim Doo-kyum win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? May 28 $102 −$60 -59%
Will Justin Bieber have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listene May 28 $104 −$21 -20%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $152 +$83 +54%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $203 +$53 +26%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? May 23 $153 −$21 -14%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 23 $263 −$250 -95%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $152 +$113 +74%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) May 23 $201 +$45 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $51 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $56 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $152 1h
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 47¢ $152 19d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 47¢ $152 19d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 27¢ $153 21d
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners SELL Yes 73¢ $179 21d
Will Kim Doo-kyum win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? SELL Yes 18¢ $42 21d
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners BUY Yes 56¢ $142 21d
Will Justin Bieber have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listene SELL Yes 10¢ $34 21d
Will Justin Bieber have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listene SELL Yes 10¢ $50 21d
Will Kim Doo-kyum win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 21d
Spurs vs. Thunder SELL Thunder 91¢ $235 22d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 58¢ $152 23d
Will Justin Bieber have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listene BUY Yes 12¢ $52 25d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers SELL Knicks 93¢ $178 26d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 52¢ $101 26d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers SELL Cavaliers 40¢ $77 26d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 51¢ $101 26d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? SELL No 66¢ $131 26d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 65¢ $263 26d
Thunder vs. Spurs SELL Thunder 100¢ $265 26d
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) SELL Thunder 98¢ $246 26d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 63¢ $101 27d
Will Justin Bieber have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listene BUY Yes 12¢ $52 27d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 47¢ $51 27d
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) BUY Thunder 80¢ $201 27d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? BUY No 74¢ $153 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $140.36 · official $123.23 · 28 history records