Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:28:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe041…be79 sports 862 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,683 (-8%) realized −$5,696 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate65%553W / 298L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day26.4pace
Fees−$101est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$1,082now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days−$2,548
14 days−$2,576
30 days−$3,709
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$2,669
sports 23% −$729
politics 16% −$795
other 9% −$314
crypto 4% −$867
finance 3% −$220
weather 2% −$416
tech 2% +$34
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -11.0% -19.5% 71% 29% -65.2%
≤30d 268 -4.7% -13.8% 60% 16% -20.4%
≤90d 721 -5.4% -14.4% 67% 16% -16.3%
all 851 -5.9% -14.9% 65% 16% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.9% 16% -17.0%
10% ← realistic here -23.0% 9% -24.9%
15% -30.4% 5% -32.2%
20% -37.3% 2% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$30 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$1,082
Realized−$5,696
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses553 / 298
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$101
Open positions11
Markets (closed)851 / 862
History coverage99d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day26.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 851 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 91¢ 92¢ $244 $248 +$4 (+1%)
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? No 93¢ 97¢ $200 $209 +$9 (+5%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $117 $117 +$0 (+0%)
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Russia capture Kindrativka by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $97 $97 +$0 (+0%)
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $91 $90 −$1 (-1%)
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will SpaceX have the highest private market valuation on June 30? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 27 $147 +$8 +6%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $11 +$5 +48%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? Jun 27 $20 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30? Jun 27 $250 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 27? Jun 27 $20 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 27 $400 +$8 +2%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 27 $3 $0 -3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 +$6 +28%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $40 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by June 30? Jun 25 $201 +$1 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1 $0 +2%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $1 $0 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 $0 +12%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$10 +48%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the June meeting? Jun 24 $10 $0 +2%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $9 +$1 +8%
Targu Mures: Andrej Nedic vs Alan Rubio Jun 23 $3 $0 +5%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Carol Young Suh Lee Jun 23 $3 $0 +5%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Kimberly Birrell vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 23 $9 +$2 +20%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiaodi You vs Leolia Jeanjean Jun 23 $10 +$2 +20%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Elizabeth Mandlik vs Alina Charaeva Jun 23 $10 +$1 +8%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $130 −$27 -20%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 23 $59 −$59 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 23 $2,723 −$2,500 -92%
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? Jun 19 $38 $0 +1%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $221 −$28 -13%
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the June mee Jun 13 $151 −$142 -94%
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 13 $30 −$7 -22%
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele Jun 13 $10 −$2 -23%
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima Jun 13 $200 −$61 -30%
Will Shenna Bellows win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele Jun 13 $100 −$21 -21%
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01? Jun 13 $10 −$3 -25%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $113 −$6 -6%
Will Michael Katz be the Republican nominee for Senate in Delaware? Jun 13 $10 −$2 -19%
Will Haiti be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 13 $30 −$3 -8%
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? Jun 13 $352 −$8 -2%
Will Germany be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 13 $111 −$10 -9%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $410 −$31 -8%
Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary ele Jun 13 $7 −$1 -14%
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 13 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $526 −$25 -5%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 $0 -4%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the June meeting? Jun 13 $100 −$2 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 72¢ $146 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 96¢ $17 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 79¢ $17 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $30 2h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 70¢ $87 2h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 96¢ $78 2h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 96¢ $22 9h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 64¢ $50 9h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $20 9h
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $51 9h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $34 10h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $10 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 11h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 12h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $50 12h
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 27? SELL No 97¢ $20 12h
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $50 12h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $50 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 96¢ $101 12h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 95¢ $103 12h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $77 20h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 55¢ $10 20h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 91¢ $3 20h
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 27? BUY No 95¢ $20 22h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $20 22h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $20 22h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 71¢ $26 22h
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $50 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,082.13 · official $1,081.88 (match) · 2821 history records