Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:41:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe040…824f other 517 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 16d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (133 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3,188 (+12%) realized +$5,641 · open −$2,453
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -66% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -74% what you keep after slip
Net edge-74%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate12%28W / 202L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day133.2pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$187now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 17d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 45% −$2,231
other 40% −$6,452
sports 13% −$2,642
crypto 2% −$69
world 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (133 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-69.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 121 -75.3% -77.6% 2% 2% -96.6%
≤30d 210 -66.4% -69.6% 4% 3% -93.6%
≤90d 210 -66.4% -69.6% 4% 3% -93.6%
all 210 -66.4% -69.6% 4% 3% -93.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover133.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -69.6% 3% -93.6%
10% ← realistic here -72.5% 3% -94.2%
15% -75.1% 3% -94.7%
20% -77.6% 3% -95.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -95% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -58% · $-wt -95% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -62% → late -55% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$47 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$187
Realized+$5,641
Unrealized−$2,453
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses28 / 202
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions398
Markets (closed)230 / 517
History coverage17d ⚠
Avg bet$51
Trades / day133.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 398 History 230 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 21? No 100¢ 99¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 21? No 0¢ 77¢ $0 $38 +$38 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 21? No 20¢ 30¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+52%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? Yes 9¢ 100¢ $0 $5 +$5 (+998%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? Yes 9¢ 100¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+998%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 21? Yes 9¢ 100¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+999%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 21? Yes 9¢ 95¢ $0 $4 +$3 (+940%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 21? Yes 9¢ 100¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+999%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Yes 33¢ 76¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+126%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 33¢ 64¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+90%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 33¢ 60¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+78%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 33¢ 48¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+42%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 33¢ 50¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+51%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 33¢ 38¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 33¢ 82¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+147%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 21? Yes 9¢ 37¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+303%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 21? Yes 9¢ 44¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+384%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 21? Yes 9¢ 32¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+257%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 33¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 21? Yes 9¢ 26¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+186%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 22? Yes 9¢ 35¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+284%)
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 22? Yes 9¢ 33¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+262%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 21? Yes 9¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+999%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 102 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Toulouse win? Jun 21 $0 $0 +200%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Wolfgang Grozo finish in third place in the first round of the 20 Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in April Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Marisol Pérez Tello finish in second place in the first round of Jun 21 $0 $0 —%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bruno Fernandes be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Pre Jun 21 $0 $0 —%
Will Ollie Watkins be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premi Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Thierno Barry be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premi Jun 21 $0 $0 —%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Sparta Rotterdam win on 2026-05-10? Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Wolfgang Grozo win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian president Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Guatemala win on 2026-06-11? Jun 21 $0 −$30 -21696%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C or higher on June 21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Jean-Philippe Mateta be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Englis Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Benjamin Sesko be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Prem Jun 21 $0 $0 —%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Enrique Valderrama finish in third place in the first round of th Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Wolfgang Grozo finish in second place in the first round of the 2 Jun 21 $0 $0 —%
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam vs. AZ end in a draw? Jun 21 $0 +$17 +13620%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C or below on June 21 Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Avaí FC win on 2026-06-10? Jun 21 $1 −$30 -2256%
Will Alfonso López Chau win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presi Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 21? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Dominic Solanke be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Pre Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Alfonso López Chau and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will José Williams finish in third place in the first round of the 202 Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Enrique Valderrama finish in second place in the first round of t Jun 21 $0 $0 —%
Will Blues win? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Benetton Treviso win? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Roberto Chiabra finish in second place in the first round of the Jun 21 $0 $0 —%
Will Hugo Ekitike be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premie Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 21? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 21 $42 −$96 -231%
Will Cole Palmer be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier Jun 21 $0 $0 —%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian pres Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Varbergs BoIS vs. Norrby IF end in a draw? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 21? BUY No 20¢ $6 1m
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 21? BUY No 20¢ $4 2m
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Jun SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 7m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $5 14m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 21? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 15m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 21? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 15m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 21? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 15m
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 35°C or higher on June SELL Yes 0¢ $0 22m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 21? SELL Yes 25¢ $0 23m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 21? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 26m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 21? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 29m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 21? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 29m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 21? SELL Yes 25¢ $4 30m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 78¢ $23 32m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $30 32m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $30 32m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 21? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 34m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 21? BUY No 32¢ $2 35m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $7 35m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $7 35m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 21? BUY No 32¢ $5 35m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 21? BUY No 5¢ $0 35m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 21? BUY No 95¢ $29 36m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $30 36m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $30 36m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 22? BUY No 84¢ $3 38m
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 21? BUY No 33¢ $10 38m
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $30 38m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 21? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 38m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $187.29 · official $175.57 · 3500 history records