Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:26:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe03d…589c crypto 1417 markets active 0h ago coverage 77d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 77d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$158 (-3%) realized −$158 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate54%771W / 646L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day26.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days+$10
14 days+$16
30 days−$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$182
world 2% −$109
politics 1% +$4
other 0% +$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 170 +0.2% -9.3% 58% 58% -5.4%
≤30d 294 -4.9% -14.0% 54% 52% -18.5%
≤90d 1417 -1.0% -10.5% 54% 53% -13.3%
all 1417 -1.0% -10.5% 54% 53% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 53% -13.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 52% -21.6%
15% -26.9% 46% -29.1%
20% -34.0% 38% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$158
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses771 / 646
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1417 / 1417
History coverage77d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day26.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1417 Trades
no open positions (34 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records