Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:23:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe039…0def world 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 447d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate34%11W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% +$3
other 16% $0
crypto 4% −$3
politics 4% −$2
tech 2% $0
sports 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -3.2% -12.4% 30% 10% -8.6%
≤30d 11 -3.1% -12.3% 27% 9% -8.8%
≤90d 11 -3.1% -12.3% 27% 9% -8.8%
all 32 -5.3% -14.4% 34% 3% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 3% -10.1%
10% -22.6% 0% -18.7%
15% -30.0% 0% -26.5%
20% -36.9% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

447d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses11 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage447d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 17 $25 $0 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $12 −$2 -20%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $1 $0 -24%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $74 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $43 +$9 +20%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $36 −$1 -3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $40 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $33 −$1 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $34 $0 -2%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 11 $6 $0 +4%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 05 $6 $0 -1%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jul 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will Al-Hilal win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Hillary Clinton be named in Epstein files? Jun 24 $6 $0 +2%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? May 05 $9 −$4 -40%
Will the Conservative Party win by 0–24 seats? Apr 28 $4 $0 +1%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Apr 27 $2 $0 -0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can Apr 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 23 $4 $0 -2%
Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense in Trump's first 100 Apr 23 $2 $0 +8%
Will 2 QBs get taken in the first 3 picks of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 22 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Trump pardon Roger Stone in his first 100 days? Apr 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Apr 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 31 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $36 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $36 2h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $9 6h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $16 6h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $25 10h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $2 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 12¢ $10 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 15¢ $12 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $42 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $40 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 15¢ $10 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 15¢ $3 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $3 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 28¢ $35 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 29¢ $36 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $33 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $34 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $38 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $38 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $3 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $32 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $33 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $34 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 100 history records