Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:58:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe037…8a91 sports 639 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$334 (+3%) realized +$361 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate44%277W / 353L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day24.2pace
Fees−$116est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$82
7 days+$62
14 days+$87
30 days+$238
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$152
weather 35% +$440
other 2% −$50
crypto 1% −$17
world 0% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -10.1% -18.7% 33% 33% -3.4%
≤30d 239 -0.3% -9.8% 42% 37% -2.7%
≤90d 630 -4.8% -13.9% 44% 39% -7.4%
all 630 -4.8% -13.9% 44% 39% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.9% 39% -7.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.1% 33% -16.3%
15% -29.7% 27% -24.4%
20% -36.6% 23% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$10 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$133
Realized+$361
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses277 / 353
Est. fees paid−$116
Open positions9
Markets (closed)630 / 639
History coverage83d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day24.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 630 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Over 41¢ 42¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 50¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+16%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-14%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner T1 Academy 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs T1 Academy 58¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $31 +$23 +76%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $9 +$31 +360%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $16 +$4 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $20 −$2 -12%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $6 −$1 -22%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $13 +$21 +164%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $2 +$8 +400%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 16? Jun 17 $21 −$4 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $4 −$2 -44%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 16? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $40 +$115 +291%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $41 +$43 +105%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $18 +$30 +165%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $76 −$26 -35%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 −$10 -50%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$3 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $16 +$2 +12%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $12 +$18 +156%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $7 +$9 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +137%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $11 −$6 -51%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 +$6 +71%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $54 −$26 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $22 +$39 +179%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $75 −$21 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$3 -81%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $28 +$12 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 15 $31 +$24 +77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 56¢ $17 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $41 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 4¢ $2 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 64¢ $6 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $18 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $36 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $54 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 38¢ $19 3h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 24¢ $7 4h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 5¢ $2 4h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 5¢ $1 4h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 38¢ $8 4h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 7h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 7h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 7h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 7h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 7h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 40¢ $8 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $20 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 55¢ $31 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 29¢ $11 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 8h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 8h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 34¢ $7 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 9h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 16h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 82¢ $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 82¢ $5 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.37 · official $133.37 (match) · 2335 history records