Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:55:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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E0 0xe036…447e crypto 1666 markets active 0h ago coverage 86d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 85d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$745 (-0%) realized −$753 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate95%1588W / 77L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$249per market
Trades / day21.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 86d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$4,156
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 +3.5% -6.4% 97% 12% -6.3%
≤30d 467 -0.2% -9.7% 96% 6% -9.6%
≤90d 1665 -0.7% -10.2% 95% 7% -10.4%
all 1665 -0.7% -10.2% 95% 7% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 7% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 0% -19.0%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.8%
20% -33.8% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$269 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized−$753
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses1588 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1665 / 1666
History coverage86d ⚠
Avg bet$249
Trades / day21.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1665 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET Up 92¢ 99¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET Jun 17 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET Jun 17 $101 +$11 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET Jun 17 $101 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET Jun 17 $101 +$8 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$13 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$6 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET Jun 17 $104 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $102 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$9 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$14 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Jun 16 $108 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 15 $106 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $106 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $106 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $106 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $106 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET Jun 15 $106 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 15 $106 +$8 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 15 $118 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 15 $107 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12AM ET Jun 14 $96 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5PM ET Jun 13 $96 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5PM ET Jun 13 $96 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3PM ET Jun 13 $97 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $95 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $95 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET Jun 13 $96 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET Jun 13 $96 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET Jun 13 $97 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6AM ET Jun 13 $97 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET Jun 13 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2AM ET Jun 13 $97 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11PM ET Jun 13 $96 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9PM ET Jun 13 $96 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9PM ET Jun 13 $97 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET Jun 12 $97 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2PM ET Jun 12 $100 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $101 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $101 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $101 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $101 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $100 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $104 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $102 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $101 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $101 32h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $100 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $8 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $101 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $100 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $101 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.41 · official $105.35 · 3500 history records