trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 50¢ | 66¢ | $73 | $97 | +$24 (+32%) |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 50¢ | 34¢ | $73 | $50 | −$24 (-32%) |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Knicks | 36¢ | 36¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | Thunder | 22¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | Cavaliers | 25¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thunder vs. Spurs | May 29 | $2 | −$2 | -98% |
| Knicks vs. 76ers | May 29 | $1 | +$1 | +101% |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | May 06 | $2 | −$2 | -98% |
| Magic vs. Pistons | May 06 | $1 | $0 | +27% |
| Celtics vs. 76ers | Apr 28 | $1 | $0 | +36% |
| Solana Up or Down on February 3? | Apr 08 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on March 9? | Apr 08 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on March 2? | Apr 08 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| XRP Up or Down on April 1? | Apr 08 | $1 | $0 | +5% |
| Solana Up or Down on March 30? | Apr 01 | $1 | $0 | +6% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on March 23? | Mar 30 | $1 | +$4 | +281% |
| Solana Up or Down on March 20? | Mar 23 | $1 | $0 | +20% |
| XRP Up or Down on March 17? | Mar 20 | $2 | $0 | +6% |
| XRP Up or Down on February 14? | Feb 17 | $5,449 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Feb 14 | $5,448 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? | Feb 12 | $5,093 | −$5 | -0% |
| XRP Up or Down on February 4? | Feb 11 | $1 | +$2 | +186% |
| XRP Up or Down on January 19? | Feb 03 | $6 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Jan 12 | $15 | $0 | -0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 2 | +0.5% | -9.1% | 50% | 50% | -19.1% |
| ≤90d | 13 | -1.3% | -10.7% | 62% | 38% | -15.7% |
| all | 19 | +9.0% | -1.4% | 53% | 32% | -9.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -1.4% | 32% | -9.5% |
| 10% | -10.9% | 26% | -18.2% |
| 15% | -19.5% | 21% | -26.1% |
| 20% | -27.4% | 16% | -33.4% |