Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:18:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe035…b7b8 crypto 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 39d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$667 (-84%) realized −$662 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 39d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% −$327
tech 41% −$311
other 13% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 9 -5.8% -14.7% 22% 22% -96.2%
all 9 -5.8% -14.7% 22% 22% -96.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 22% -96.2%
10% -22.9% 22% -96.6%
15% -30.3% 22% -96.9%
20% -37.2% 22% -97.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -96% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -96% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$99 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$662
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage39d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $68 $63 −$5 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 27 $31 −$30 -97%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? May 20 $323 −$311 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 20 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 20 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 20 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 20 $0 +$1 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 20 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 20 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 20 $5 +$22 +420%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $70 1h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 10¢ $31 5h
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $12 38d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $114 38d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $30 38d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $24 38d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $11 38d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $5 38d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $2 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $104 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $105 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $104 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $0 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $27 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 38d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY No 20¢ $2 39d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY No 20¢ $0 39d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY No 20¢ $10 39d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $0 39d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $16 39d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $44 39d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $44 39d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? SELL No 22¢ $5 39d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY No 20¢ $6 39d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? SELL No 17¢ $1 39d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $1 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.88 · official $63.17 (match) · 31 history records