Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:32:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E0 0xe035…084e crypto 1385 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$98 (-3%) realized −$106 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%688W / 498L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day52.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$174
7 days+$181
14 days+$364
30 days+$362
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$383
sports 1% −$17
other 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 231 +15.7% +4.7% 65% 63% +3.6%
≤30d 1186 +9.1% -1.3% 58% 58% +0.4%
≤90d 1186 +9.1% -1.3% 58% 58% +0.4%
all 1186 +9.1% -1.3% 58% 58% +0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.3% 58% +0.4%
10% ← realistic here -10.8% 56% -9.2%
15% -19.4% 55% -17.9%
20% -27.3% 49% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized−$106
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses688 / 498
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1186 / 1385
History coverage26d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day52.3
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1186 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Down 42¢ 100¢ $10 $24 +$14 (+137%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Up 33¢ 14¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 496 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$14 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$8 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$17 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$20 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$14 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $11 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.50 · official $78.47 · 2074 history records