Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:34:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe02c…58e3 other 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$29 (+21%) realized +$33 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate27%12W / 32L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% +$8
other 35% +$2
crypto 15% +$21
world 4% −$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +1.7% -8.0% 27% 23% +16.1%
≤30d 44 +1.7% -8.0% 27% 23% +16.1%
≤90d 44 +1.7% -8.0% 27% 23% +16.1%
all 44 +1.7% -8.0% 27% 23% +16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 23% +16.1%
10% -16.8% 23% +5.0%
15% -24.9% 23% -5.1%
20% -32.2% 20% -14.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$2 · ×4.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$33
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses12 / 32
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)44 / 47
History coverage6d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 49¢ 36¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-27%)
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ assists Yes 31¢ 9¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Aymen Hussein: 1+ goals Jun 16 $1 +$5 +503%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 16 $4 +$2 +55%
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Jun 16 $2 +$4 +196%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $4 +$4 +107%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 $0 -10%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Sadio Mané: 1+ goals Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ goals Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $20 +$10 +49%
Mohamed Salah: 1+ assists Jun 15 $2 +$10 +468%
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals Jun 15 $8 −$3 -42%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$5 -51%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5 +$7 +132%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ assists Jun 15 $2 −$1 -53%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 $0 -11%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 $0 -7%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 14 $1 $0 -5%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $3 +$6 +185%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$33 +628%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -77%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 10 $1 $0 -11%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$2 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Aymen Hussein: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $6 48m
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $6 1h
Aymen Hussein: 1+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2h
Michael Olise: 1+ assists SELL Yes 91¢ $6 3h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $8 3h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 3h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 3h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 51¢ $3 6h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 51¢ $3 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $4 8h
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ assists BUY Yes 31¢ $2 8h
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ assists BUY Yes 31¢ $2 8h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 63¢ $4 8h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 47¢ $4 10h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $5 11h
Michael Olise: 1+ assists BUY Yes 30¢ $2 11h
Sadio Mané: 1+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $1 11h
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $3 25h
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $1 26h
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $2 26h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $30 26h
Mohamed Salah: 1+ assists SELL Yes 99¢ $12 28h
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals SELL Yes 25¢ $3 28h
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals SELL Yes 25¢ $2 29h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $20 29h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 49¢ $5 29h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $12 29h
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $5 30h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 30h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.10 · official $2.92 · 78 history records