Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:28:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe02c…5d08 sports 51 markets active 11d ago coverage 104d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 103d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$125,873 (+42%) realized +$126,321 · open −$448
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate21%37W / 139L
Whale WR39%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,844per market
Trades / day31.3pace
Fees−$1,613est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$6,012now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 104d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$174,018
other 16% +$686
world 3% +$10
culture 2% −$1,457
politics 0% −$1
tech 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 134 -69.3% -72.3% 4% 3% -94.7%
≤30d 135 -66.1% -69.3% 4% 4% -84.6%
≤90d 155 -31.7% -38.2% 15% 15% -10.1%
all 176 -15.8% -23.8% 21% 16% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.8% 16% -14.3%
10% -31.1% 12% -22.5%
15% ← realistic here -37.7% 12% -30.0%
20% -43.8% 10% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 39% (≥$1,575) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +26% → late -58% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
31.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5,790 vs −$1,624 · ×3.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$6,012
Realized+$126,321
Unrealized−$448
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses37 / 139
Whale WR (big bets)39%
Est. fees paid−$1,613
Open positions57
Markets (closed)176 / 51
History coverage104d ⚠
Avg bet$5,844
Trades / day31.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 57 History 176 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? No 91¢ 93¢ $3,506 $3,589 +$83 (+2%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 86¢ 90¢ $1,814 $1,910 +$95 (+5%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $194 $194 −$1 (-0%)
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 62¢ 28¢ $224 $103 −$121 (-54%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $21 $13 −$8 (-37%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House No 54¢ 62¢ $11 $12 +$2 (+16%)
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 59¢ 19¢ $33 $10 −$22 (-68%)
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 70¢ 99¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+40%)
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? Yes 76¢ 65¢ $11 $10 −$2 (-14%)
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 72¢ 96¢ $7 $10 +$2 (+34%)
Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027? No 80¢ 90¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+13%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No 80¢ 82¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? No 8¢ 72¢ $1 $7 +$6 (+794%)
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $474 $6 −$468 (-99%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 82¢ 92¢ $5 $5 +$1 (+12%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 10¢ 52¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+425%)
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? No 71¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+41%)
Will Pacifica launch a token by June 30 2026? No 68¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+46%)
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No 93¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 79¢ 94¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+19%)
US recession by end of 2026? No 72¢ 88¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+23%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 74¢ 88¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+20%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 61¢ 88¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+45%)
Will Exponent launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 46¢ 14¢ $14 $4 −$10 (-69%)
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 33¢ 83¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+152%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 142 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev Jun 29 $2,592 −$3,988 -154%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 November 24-30? Jun 29 $388 −$2,455 -633%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $340 end of January? Jun 29 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Solana reach $190 in November? Jun 29 $720 −$720 -100%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90 Jun 29 $1,286 −$1,286 -100%
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 29 $194 −$194 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Jun 29 $7,381 +$2,985 +40%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-01-07? Jun 29 $140 −$140 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on November 22? Jun 29 $768 −$768 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump meet with Satya Nadella in January 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 17? Jun 29 $192 −$192 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on November 23? Jun 29 $1,217 −$1,217 -100%
Canadiens vs. Capitals Jun 29 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Jun 29 $1,924 −$1,878 -98%
Nuggets vs. Celtics Jun 29 $1,575 −$1,575 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-17? Jun 29 $331 −$331 -100%
First to 5k: Gold or ETH? Jun 29 $72 −$72 -100%
Oregon vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Jun 29 $221 −$221 -100%
Will ETHGAS launch a token by March 31, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 November 17-23? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
US strike on Mexico by March 31? Jun 29 $0 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 29 $3,269 −$3,269 -100%
Will the Eagles win the 2026 NFC Championship? Jun 29 $360 −$360 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on November 22? Jun 29 $2,757 −$2,757 -100%
Will Club Brugge advance to the round of 16? Jun 29 $17 −$17 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Jun 29 $0 −$2 -375%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the Rams win the NFC Championship? Jun 29 $620 −$620 -100%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 29 $19 −$19 -100%
Hawks vs. Warriors Jun 29 $10,219 −$10,219 -100%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Packers vs. Bears Jun 29 $962 −$962 -100%
NATO x Russia military clash by March 31, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Bears win the NFC Championship? Jun 29 $228 −$236 -104%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in November? Jun 29 $2,400 −$2,400 -100%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $6 mil Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by January 31? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-20? Jun 29 $5,429 −$5,429 -100%
Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $260 end of January? Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO by March 31? Jun 29 $118 −$119 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on November 26? Jun 29 $1,086 −$1,086 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $150 on November 27? Jun 29 $725 −$725 -100%
Will Solana reach $160 November 24-30? Jun 29 $2,104 −$2,104 -100%
Will Senegal vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 29 $53 −$53 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $1,662 10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $100 10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $15 10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $20 10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $20 10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $85 10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $20 10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $20 10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $7 10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,011.88 · official $6,011.07 (match) · 3500 history records