Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:35:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe029…258b crypto 163 markets active 1h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$2 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%23W / 139L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$163now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$110
7 days+$90
14 days+$90
30 days+$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% −$103
other 41% −$38
sports 12% +$141
world 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-43.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +1.2% -8.5% 20% 20% +30.7%
≤30d 30 +1.2% -8.5% 20% 20% +30.7%
≤90d 30 +1.2% -8.5% 20% 20% +30.7%
all 162 -37.7% -43.7% 14% 14% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.7% 14% -11.0%
10% -49.1% 14% -19.5%
15% -54.0% 14% -27.3%
20% -58.5% 14% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +44% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -52% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$3 · ×5.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$163
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses23 / 139
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)162 / 163
History coverage120d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 162 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $164 $163 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Uruguay to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 +$29 +287%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$6 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $6 −$5 -86%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 14 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$45 +442%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 +$19 +364%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $11 +$130 +1152%
Will Atalanta BC vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund end in a draw? Feb 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Feb 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2025-12-19? Feb 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica end in a draw? Feb 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Feb 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Feb 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-02-25? Feb 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-25? Feb 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-02-25? Feb 25 $1 +$1 +112%
XRP Up or Down - February 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Feb 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Feb 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Feb 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Feb 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-24? Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2025-12-19? Feb 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Derby County FC win on 2026-02-24? Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2026-02-24? Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK end in a draw? Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Feb 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Feb 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $165 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 20h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 20h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 21h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $7 36h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 36h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 39h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 39h
Uruguay to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 40h
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Uruguay? SELL Yes 99¢ $40 40h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 40h
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Uruguay? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 40h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 41h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 43h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $2 43h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 43h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 43h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 43h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $2 43h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 43h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 43h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 44h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $163.22 · official $163.22 (match) · 374 history records