Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:56:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe028…b9e9 other 242 markets active 0h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$86 (-0%) realized −$86 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%9W / 232L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$222per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$20
14 days−$31
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$47
sports 23% −$21
politics 8% −$12
culture 5% −$6
crypto 5% −$4
economics 4% −$5
world 4% −$3
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 71 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 174 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 241 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$86
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses9 / 232
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)241 / 242
History coverage135d
Avg bet$222
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 241 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $113 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $377 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $570 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $786 −$2 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $332 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $206 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $286 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $657 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $303 −$2 -1%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $366 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $125 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $632 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $202 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $228 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $392 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $54 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $103 $0 +0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $192 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $171 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $273 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $137 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $222 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $286 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $162 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 12 $556 −$2 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 12 $207 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $464 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $460 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $470 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $168 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $117 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $743 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $370 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $219 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $332 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 09 $133 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $182 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $269 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $156 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $312 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $407 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $536 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $750 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $825 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $1,070 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $203 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $691 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $259 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $544 −$2 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $709 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $52 16m
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $52 1h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $52 3h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $52 4h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $52 5h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $52 7h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $52 8h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 13h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $52 14h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 16h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $52 18h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $52 20h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 22h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $53 23h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $53 24h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $53 26h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $53 28h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $53 32h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $53 34h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 35h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 36h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $53 41h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $53 43h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $53 44h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $53 45h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 47h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $53 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.77 · official $51.78 (match) · 1440 history records