Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:54:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe026…0404 sports 1253 markets active 2h ago coverage 140d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 139d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$520 (-1%) realized −$568 · open +$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%597W / 652L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day15.2pace
Fees−$541est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$657now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$61
7 days+$13
14 days−$2,320
30 days−$2,141
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$879
other 3% +$141
world 1% −$227
economics 0% $0
politics 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -1.2% -10.6% 50% 50% -8.9%
≤30d 394 -7.0% -15.8% 46% 46% -19.9%
≤90d 787 +3.4% -6.4% 50% 50% -11.0%
all 1249 -3.4% -12.6% 48% 46% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 46% -11.7%
10% -21.0% 45% -20.1%
15% -28.6% 41% -27.9%
20% -35.6% 36% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$31 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$657
Realized−$568
Unrealized+$48
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses597 / 652
Est. fees paid−$541
Open positions11
Markets (closed)1249 / 1253
History coverage140d ⚠
Avg bet$36
Trades / day15.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 1249 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Paper Rex 72¢ 72¢ $147 $146 −$1 (-1%)
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes 38¢ 64¢ $53 $90 +$37 (+70%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 73¢ 74¢ $85 $85 +$1 (+1%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) G2 55¢ 55¢ $83 $83 +$0 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Gentle Mates 69¢ 76¢ $74 $81 +$7 (+9%)
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Leviatán Esports 48¢ 46¢ $73 $71 −$2 (-3%)
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) 9z 55¢ 55¢ $56 $56 −$1 (-1%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 51¢ 62¢ $15 $19 +$3 (+23%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 65¢ 76¢ $16 $19 +$3 (+17%)
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026? Yes 7¢ 12¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 385 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portsmouth FC win on 2025-12-06? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-01-13? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Charlton Athletic FC vs. Portsmouth FC end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Charlton Athletic FC vs. Portsmouth FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Game Handicap: TR (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) Jun 18 $36 +$64 +180%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 18 $35 +$25 +70%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $72 +$36 +50%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $55 +$57 +104%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Game Handicap: REF (-1.5) vs Game Master (+1.5) Jun 17 $63 −$62 -99%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea Jun 16 $53 −$52 -99%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $52 +$22 +42%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Map Handicap: NEM (-1.5) vs Infinite (+1.5) Jun 16 $45 −$44 -99%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $7 +$5 +75%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 16 $81 −$80 -99%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $33 −$33 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $44 −$43 -99%
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 16 $42 −$41 -98%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $47 +$28 +60%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $34 +$40 +119%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $1 $0 +48%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $28 +$46 +163%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 15 $40 −$39 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $24 +$21 +89%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 +$9 +96%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut Jun 14 $52 −$51 -98%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 14 $23 +$15 +64%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $49 −$49 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $46 +$27 +60%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $38 +$34 +90%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $33 +$31 +93%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $39 +$33 +85%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $25 −$24 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $16 −$16 -98%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $46 +$70 +151%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $22 +$48 +212%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $25 +$16 +67%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $32 +$35 +109%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $18 +$22 +119%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $101 +$95 +93%
Game Handicap: ES (-1.5) vs Anubis Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $93 −$92 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $26 −$26 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 55¢ $57 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 73¢ $74 2h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 69¢ $74 3h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 48¢ $21 9h
Game Handicap: TR (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) BUY Team Resilience 35¢ $36 13h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 48¢ $54 16h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 72¢ $30 18h
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 18h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 72¢ $43 20h
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 23h
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 23h
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 23h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 45¢ $40 25h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 45¢ $1 25h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 45¢ $9 25h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Team Resilience 58¢ $35 25h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY INOX Division 66¢ $72 26h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $55 29h
Game Handicap: REF (-1.5) vs Game Master (+1.5) BUY Game Master 62¢ $63 32h
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea BUY Arthur Gea 52¢ $53 42h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 29¢ $20 43h
Map Handicap: NEM (-1.5) vs Infinite (+1.5) BUY Infinite 55¢ $19 44h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 55¢ $42 44h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 73¢ $33 45h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) BUY FUT Esports 63¢ $81 2d
Map Handicap: NEM (-1.5) vs Infinite (+1.5) BUY Infinite 55¢ $26 2d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 44¢ $33 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series BUY Infinite 26¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series BUY Infinite 26¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series BUY Infinite 26¢ $17 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $656.77 · official $656.83 (match) · 3500 history records