Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:03:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe025…ceb0 politics 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$310 (-40%) realized −$308 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -73% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -76% what you keep after slip
Net edge-76%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate10%4W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$348
other 26% +$162
crypto 14% −$80
sports 10% −$8
world 4% −$31
economics 2% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-76.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 7 -85.1% -86.5% 14% 0% -67.7%
≤90d 36 -78.6% -80.7% 8% 6% -48.7%
all 40 -73.4% -76.0% 10% 8% -47.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -76.0% 8% -47.2%
10% -78.3% 5% -52.2%
15% -80.4% 2% -56.8%
20% -82.3% 2% -61.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -73% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -68% → late -79% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$15 · ×3.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$308
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses4 / 36
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage118d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 16-22? Yes 38¢ 36¢ $27 $25 −$2 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 15 $7 −$7 -95%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54 and 55 million views on day 4 Jun 03 $9 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026? May 31 $5 −$5 -96%
Will MrBeast hit 500 million subscribers by June 30? May 31 $16 +$1 +4%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? May 30 $3 −$3 -95%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 May 03 $5 −$5 -95%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $16 −$16 -99%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 29 $5 $0 -10%
James Comey arrested by April 30? Apr 29 $20 −$8 -42%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 29 $15 +$5 +32%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 30, 2026? Apr 28 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 29, 2026? Apr 28 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 20, 2026? Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 14-20? Apr 19 $5 −$4 -71%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 Apr 18 $3 −$3 -95%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Apr 18 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 28, 2026? Apr 07 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Trump say "Egg" this week? (March 29) Apr 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Hell" 8+ times during Miami address? Apr 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 30+ times during t Apr 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Hottest" during Miami address? Apr 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump say "El Salvador" this week? (March 8) Apr 04 $8 −$8 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 42 and 46 million views on day 2 Apr 04 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Trump say "Hottest" this week? (March 15) Apr 04 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the FII PRIORITY Summit? Apr 04 $70 −$70 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026? Apr 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in March? Apr 04 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in March? Apr 04 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Trump say "America" or "American" 25+ times during the 2026 State Apr 04 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" during the FII PRIORITY Summit? Apr 04 $225 −$225 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 8, 2026? Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iran strike Bahrain again in March? Apr 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 29, 2026? Apr 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will "People" be said 100+ times during the first episode of the Joe R Apr 02 $91 +$232 +255%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during March press conference? Mar 18 $60 −$13 -22%
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? Mar 09 $1 −$1 -55%
Will MrBeast hit 115 billion views by March 31? Mar 08 $22 −$11 -48%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from March 3 to March 1 Mar 01 $2 $0 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 16-22? BUY Yes 38¢ $28 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 5d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 1¢ $7 5d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54 and 55 million views on day 4 BUY No 8¢ $9 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 18d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026? BUY No 9¢ $5 21d
Will MrBeast hit 500 million subscribers by June 30? SELL No 5¢ $16 21d
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 21d
Will MrBeast hit 500 million subscribers by June 30? BUY No 4¢ $16 22d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 3¢ $5 49d
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 76¢ $16 50d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL No 0¢ $4 52d
James Comey arrested by April 30? SELL No 14¢ $12 53d
James Comey arrested by April 30? BUY No 24¢ $20 53d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $15 53d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 30, 2026? BUY No 9¢ $3 53d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 29, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $2 53d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY No 0¢ $5 53d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 20, 2026? BUY No 20¢ $1 62d
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 14-20? SELL No 0¢ $1 62d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 1¢ $3 63d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 9¢ $2 63d
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 14-20? BUY No 1¢ $5 66d
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 28, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $18 78d
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 29, 2026? BUY No 11¢ $3 78d
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 28, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 78d
Will Iran strike Bahrain again in March? BUY No 0¢ $5 80d
Will "People" be said 100+ times during the first episode of the Joe R BUY No 32¢ $62 82d
Will "People" be said 100+ times during the first episode of the Joe R BUY No 22¢ $29 82d
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 30+ times during t BUY No 31¢ $5 85d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.44 · official $25.44 (match) · 71 history records