Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:48:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E0 0xe020…ff13 sports 133 markets active 2h ago coverage 322d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9,237 (+4%) realized +$9,238 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate77%101W / 30L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$1,731per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1,141est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$999now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$344
7 days+$947
14 days+$947
30 days+$4,222
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$8,473
other 10% −$165
world 0% +$27
crypto 0% +$102
tech 0% +$3
politics 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +8.1% -2.2% 75% 39% -5.2%
≤30d 38 +7.2% -3.0% 74% 37% -4.2%
≤90d 102 +4.1% -5.8% 73% 30% -6.7%
all 131 +7.2% -3.0% 77% 32% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.0% 32% -6.2%
10% -12.3% 20% -15.2%
15% -20.8% 13% -23.4%
20% -28.5% 9% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$2,266) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$184 vs −$336 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.84 per $1 lost it wins $1.84
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

322d coverage
Net worth$999
Realized+$9,238
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses101 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$1,141
Open positions1
Markets (closed)131 / 133
History coverage322d
Avg bet$1,731
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? No 96¢ 96¢ $1,000 $999 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,002 +$85 +8%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $501 +$37 +7%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $302 −$300 -99%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2,703 +$103 +4%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$28 +27%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $300 +$15 +5%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $401 −$400 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $201 +$34 +17%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $402 +$86 +21%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $601 +$19 +3%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $201 +$49 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,403 +$149 +11%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $803 −$71 -9%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$206 +201%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $607 +$347 +57%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $335 +$166 +49%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$47 -46%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,002 +$73 +7%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $701 +$23 +3%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $201 +$49 +24%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $357 +$865 +242%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2,002 +$77 +4%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $409 −$400 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $401 −$400 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3,302 +$54 +2%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,103 +$97 +9%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $8,753 +$399 +5%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $5,478 +$215 +4%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $3,921 +$982 +25%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $6,636 +$894 +14%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 24 $5,002 +$58 +1%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $2,197 −$355 -16%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $1,808 −$60 -3%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $5,411 +$138 +3%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $6,429 +$1,216 +19%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 20 $6,516 −$212 -3%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $3,524 +$430 +12%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $6,875 −$2,746 -40%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 17 $1,207 +$255 +21%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $5,518 +$362 +7%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 16 $2,905 +$173 +6%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings May 15 $5,110 +$192 +4%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 14 $910 +$24 +3%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 13 $2,209 +$151 +7%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 12 $1,005 +$317 +32%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals May 11 $1,210 +$365 +30%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians May 10 $460 −$25 -6%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants May 10 $503 +$106 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $1,001 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY No 64¢ $101 3h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 92¢ $1,002 7h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 93¢ $501 12h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $302 12h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 99¢ $1,500 26h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $200 26h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $1,002 26h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 95¢ $300 32h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 32h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 92¢ $401 35h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 47h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 47h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 97¢ $601 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $402 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $800 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $200 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $201 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 81¢ $732 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $301 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $202 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $202 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 68¢ $269 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $203 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 47¢ $116 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 12¢ $29 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $502 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 80¢ $201 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $999.48 · official $999.48 (match) · 1014 history records