Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:45:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe01e…db1f world 46 markets active 0h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$80 (-6%) realized −$86 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate26%9W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$441now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$11
14 days−$38
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 36% −$95
other 30% +$41
world 15% −$17
politics 6% −$18
crypto 5% +$7
finance 5% −$3
tech 3% −$1
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.5% -9.1% 70% 60% -7.1%
≤30d 13 -7.0% -15.9% 62% 54% -16.2%
≤90d 34 -17.8% -25.6% 26% 21% -19.3%
all 34 -17.8% -25.6% 26% 21% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.6% 21% -19.3%
10% -32.8% 21% -27.0%
15% -39.3% 15% -34.1%
20% -45.2% 12% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$11 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$441
Realized−$86
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses9 / 25
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions12
Markets (closed)34 / 46
History coverage63d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No 82¢ 78¢ $60 $57 −$3 (-6%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Over 72¢ 72¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? Yes 90¢ 98¢ $45 $49 +$4 (+8%)
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 4.5 Over 87¢ 84¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $48 +$8 (+20%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? No 92¢ 90¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No 87¢ 84¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 86¢ 88¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 87¢ 86¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 88¢ 86¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $51 +$18 +35%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $26 +$16 +63%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $41 +$15 +36%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $41 +$28 +69%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $52 −$50 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $93 +$59 +64%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $6 $0 +5%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $34 −$33 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $25 +$8 +33%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $52 −$51 -98%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $26 +$27 +104%
Will Derrick Lewis win by KO or TKO? Jun 13 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17) May 11 $16 −$16 -97%
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 205.5 May 04 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? May 04 $15 −$5 -31%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian president Apr 26 $25 −$1 -3%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 26 $20 −$1 -3%
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? Apr 26 $65 −$7 -11%
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? Apr 25 $55 −$5 -9%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian president Apr 25 $10 $0 -4%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of Apr 24 $5 $0 -4%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $5 −$3 -64%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $10 $0 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? Apr 23 $5 −$1 -29%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? Apr 23 $15 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $5 $0 -9%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $5 −$2 -48%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 22 $25 −$3 -12%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? Apr 20 $5 −$3 -62%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? Apr 20 $20 −$2 -10%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 20 $10 −$1 -6%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Apr 20 $15 −$1 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $51 0m
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 87¢ $51 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $51 10h
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? BUY No 81¢ $46 11h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 29h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 29h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $46 35h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $52 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $26 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $31 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $15 2d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 92¢ $46 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $41 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $41 3d
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? BUY No 86¢ $15 4d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 87¢ $15 4d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $15 4d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $52 4d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $51 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $152 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $93 4d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 68¢ $6 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 92¢ $34 6d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 63¢ $52 7d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 8d
Will Derrick Lewis win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 74¢ $25 8d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 48¢ $26 8d
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17) BUY Yes 58¢ $16 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $440.84 · official $440.84 (match) · 186 history records