Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:10:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E0 0xe01c…4cfc crypto 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$11 (-10%) realized −$5 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%8W / 6L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day36.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$20
tech 6% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +33.8% +21.0% 57% 57% +9.5%
≤30d 14 +33.8% +21.0% 57% 57% +9.5%
≤90d 14 +33.8% +21.0% 57% 57% +9.5%
all 14 +33.8% +21.0% 57% 57% +9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +21.0% 57% +9.5%
10% ← realistic here +9.4% 50% -1.0%
15% -1.1% 43% -10.6%
20% -10.8% 43% -19.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +89% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses8 / 6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day36.0
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? No 1¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$12 +285%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$4 +398%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$12 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$8 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$2 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 12m
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY No 1¢ $6 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $2 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.91 · official $5.91 · 43 history records