Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:48:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
E0 0xe01b…fa88 other 102 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fading edge
Total PnL +$187 (+13%) realized +$215 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%30W / 24L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$942now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$134
7 days+$22
14 days+$197
30 days+$197
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$112
sports 14% +$83
crypto 4% +$5
tech 2% −$22
world 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+33.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +4.5% -5.4% 41% 41% -4.5%
≤30d 54 +47.9% +33.8% 56% 56% +26.6%
≤90d 54 +47.9% +33.8% 56% 56% +26.6%
all 54 +47.9% +33.8% 56% 56% +26.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +33.8% 56% +26.6%
10% +21.0% 56% +14.5%
15% +9.3% 56% +3.4%
20% -1.4% 50% -6.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +48% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +156% → late -60% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$9 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.91 per $1 lost it wins $1.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$942
Realized+$215
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses30 / 24
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions48
Markets (closed)54 / 102
History coverage14d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 48 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-07-01? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $105 $104 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-07-02? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-2%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-3%)
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-03? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-07-03? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-07-02? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Portugal vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-5%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+0%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 52¢ $12 $16 +$4 (+36%)
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 66¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 52¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+38%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 70¢ 62¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-11%)
Will Argentina be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup? Yes 60¢ 64¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+8%)
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 76¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+26%)
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 64¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+2%)
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 51¢ 62¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $14 +$14 +97%
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $15 +$8 +53%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $8 +$9 +109%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $6 +$16 +262%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 +$7 +65%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Egypt be the highest-scoring team in Group G during the Group Sta Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 27 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Cape Verde finish second in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gr Jun 27 $8 +$7 +83%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $8 +$20 +250%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $10 +$8 +79%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$52 +510%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $15 +$6 +42%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $8 +$9 +114%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $8 +$4 +52%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $15 +$9 +57%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $6 +$34 +550%
Norway to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 23 $6 +$5 +87%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$25 +124%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $7 +$71 +982%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $8 +$4 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $7 +$5 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $8 +$5 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $8 +$23 +276%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3 +$1 +38%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $16 +$21 +132%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 1h
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-07-02? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 45¢ $25 2h
Will Australia win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02? BUY Yes 53¢ $46 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 62¢ $35 2h
Will England win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 78¢ $50 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 77¢ $40 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-07-02? BUY Yes 77¢ $70 2h
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 2h
Will England win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 78¢ $55 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 44¢ $25 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $25 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 48¢ $25 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 45¢ $25 2h
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 71¢ $15 34h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 45¢ $15 34h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 34h
Will Argentina be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World BUY Yes 60¢ $12 2d
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 2d
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 2d
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 2d
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World BUY Yes 56¢ $10 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 3d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $12 3d
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 BUY Yes 38¢ $10 3d
Will Egypt be the highest-scoring team in Group G during the Group Sta BUY Yes 55¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $941.67 · official $941.69 (match) · 162 history records