trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +3.1% | -6.7% | 25% | 25% | -6.1% |
| ≤30d | 13 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 23% | 8% | -8.5% |
| ≤90d | 13 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 23% | 8% | -8.5% |
| all | 26 | -7.6% | -16.4% | 31% | 8% | -11.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -16.4% | 8% | -11.9% |
| 10% | -24.4% | 0% | -20.3% |
| 15% | -31.7% | 0% | -28.0% |
| 20% | -38.4% | 0% | -35.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | No | 81¢ | 81¢ | $34 | $34 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 24 | $34 | +$5 | +15% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Jun 23 | $34 | $0 | -1% |
| Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | Jun 23 | $34 | −$1 | -2% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 22 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 08 | $44 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 07 | $2 | $0 | -9% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | Jun 06 | $7 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 05 | $3 | $0 | -7% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | Jun 04 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma | May 27 | $34 | +$1 | +2% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 26 | $7 | $0 | +4% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | May 26 | $34 | −$1 | -2% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | May 26 | $34 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 15 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Apr 02 | $1 | $0 | -16% |
| Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in his first 100 days? | Apr 01 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? | Apr 01 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? | Mar 31 | $1 | $0 | +21% |
| Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Mar 28 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 27 | $1 | $0 | -8% |
| Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 26 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? | Mar 25 | $3 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? | Mar 24 | $1 | $0 | -14% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Mar 28? | Mar 24 | $12 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? | Mar 23 | $14 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 20 | $14 | $0 | -1% |