Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:05:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
E0 0xe016…949a crypto 863 markets active 2h ago coverage 57d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 56d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,280 (+1%) realized +$2,280 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%856W / 7L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$224per market
Trades / day46.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$124
7 days+$443
14 days+$843
30 days+$515
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,362
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 140 +1.2% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 549 +0.3% -9.3% 99% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 863 +0.7% -8.9% 99% 0% -8.9%
all 863 +0.7% -8.9% 99% 0% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 0% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 0% -17.6%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.6%
20% -32.9% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$207 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.94 per $1 lost it wins $1.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$2,280
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses856 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)863 / 863
History coverage57d ⚠
Avg bet$224
Trades / day46.6
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 863 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $303 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $303 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $303 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $303 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $300 +$15 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $202 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $303 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $303 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $303 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $202 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $303 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $303 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $303 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $303 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $303 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $207 +$3 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $202 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $303 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $306 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $303 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $306 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $303 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $303 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $303 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $303 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $305 +$10 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $303 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $303 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $303 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $303 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $303 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $202 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $303 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $305 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $303 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $303 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $301 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $202 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $202 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $303 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $303 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $202 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $303 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $134 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $303 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $204 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $303 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $312 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $303 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $303 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $101 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $101 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $101 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $101 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $101 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $101 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $55 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $46 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $48 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $53 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $101 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $101 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $101 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $101 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $101 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $101 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $101 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $101 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $101 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $101 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $101 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.06 · official $20.06 (match) · 3500 history records