Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:50:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe011…3b5b sports 124 markets active 2d ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate71%88W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$158
7 days−$223
14 days−$68
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$42
other 13% +$20
politics 3% +$5
crypto 1% −$22
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -7.0% -15.9% 50% 50% -26.6%
≤30d 110 +4.0% -5.9% 74% 56% -10.3%
≤90d 124 +2.2% -7.6% 71% 54% -10.3%
all 124 +2.2% -7.6% 71% 54% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 54% -10.3%
10% -16.4% 31% -18.9%
15% -24.5% 18% -26.8%
20% -31.9% 9% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$22 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses88 / 36
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)124 / 124
History coverage29d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 124 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $56 −$55 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $115 −$59 -52%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $58 −$45 -77%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $53 +$49 +93%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $43 +$68 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $35 +$8 +22%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $25 +$11 +44%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $18 +$6 +34%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $52 −$33 -64%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $214 −$98 -46%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $86 +$29 +34%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $137 −$136 -99%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 10 $46 +$7 +16%
Tucuman: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 10 $20 −$20 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $154 +$47 +30%
Ilkley: Luca Nardi vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 10 $71 −$2 -3%
ITF Wuning: Hanna Chang vs Reina Goto Jun 10 $69 +$3 +4%
ITF Hurghada: Aya El Sayed vs Sara Milanese Jun 10 $28 −$18 -62%
ITF Maanshan: Kasidit Samrej vs Lingxi Zhao Jun 10 $47 −$7 -15%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $128 +$119 +93%
Lyon: Matteo Martineau vs Mickael Kaouk Jun 09 $119 +$9 +7%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $112 +$7 +6%
Stuttgart Open: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs James Duckworth Jun 09 $100 +$12 +12%
Cattolica: Maks Kasnikowski vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 09 $81 +$20 +24%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 09 $254 −$173 -68%
Ilkley: Lucrezia Stefanini vs Vendula Valdmannova Jun 09 $182 +$72 +40%
Modena: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 09 $90 −$69 -77%
Libema Open: Katie Volynets vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 09 $51 +$10 +20%
Libema Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Sara Bejlek Jun 09 $51 +$10 +20%
ITF Tokyo: Ran Wakana vs Yuno Kitahara Jun 09 $90 +$12 +14%
ITF Wuning: Chenting Zhu vs Daria Khomutsianskaya Jun 09 $47 +$10 +21%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $15 +$15 +99%
Ilkley: Veronika Podrez vs Tatiana Prozorova Jun 08 $90 +$3 +3%
Modena: Jeline Vandromme vs Angela Fita Boluda Jun 08 $82 +$9 +11%
Cattolica: Liam Broady vs Ioannis Xilas Jun 08 $38 +$12 +32%
Libema Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Robin Montgomery Jun 08 $25 +$8 +33%
Bratislava: Vitaliy Sachko vs Yosuke Watanuki Jun 08 $54 +$8 +15%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Terence Atmane Jun 08 $42 +$11 +26%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $46 +$11 +23%
ITF Brasilia: Marjorie Souza vs Luiza Fullana Jun 07 $84 +$2 +2%
Will England win? Jun 07 $70 +$20 +29%
ITF Montemor-O-Novo: Francisca Jorge vs Yeon Woo Ku Jun 07 $32 +$8 +26%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Oman vs Philippines Jun 07 $29 +$3 +11%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $27 +$2 +8%
Perugia: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Andrea Pellegrino Jun 06 $21 +$6 +27%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 06 $14 +$7 +50%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 200.5 Jun 06 $13 +$1 +7%
T20 Blast: Yorkshire vs Lancashire Jun 06 $10 +$3 +36%
Perugia: Marco Cecchinato vs Timofey Skatov Jun 05 $9 $0 +2%
Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 05 $82 −$3 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 38¢ $56 41h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 33¢ $56 41h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $115 42h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 21¢ $13 42h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $102 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $58 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $53 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $110 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $43 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 85¢ $43 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $35 5d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $35 5d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 68¢ $25 6d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $25 6d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 74¢ $18 6d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 21¢ $18 6d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 57¢ $52 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 17¢ $51 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $115 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $31 6d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY Global Esports 78¢ $68 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 74¢ $86 6d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY Global Esports 83¢ $68 6d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group SELL Leo Team 100¢ $53 6d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group BUY Leo Team 86¢ $46 6d
Tucuman: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Juan Manuel La Serna BUY Juan Manuel La Serna 47¢ $20 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 46¢ $65 6d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $202 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $68 6d
Ilkley: Luca Nardi vs Jacob Fearnley SELL Jacob Fearnley 68¢ $68 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 275 history records