Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:37:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe00d…aeef crypto 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 552d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$34 (+2%) realized +$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate54%29W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$211
7 days−$206
14 days−$206
30 days−$206
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$30
politics 29% $0
other 6% +$6
sports 1% +$5
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -26.8% -33.8% 40% 40% -36.0%
≤30d 30 -26.8% -33.8% 40% 40% -36.0%
≤90d 33 -24.5% -31.6% 39% 36% -35.1%
all 54 -11.1% -19.5% 54% 31% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 31% -10.4%
10% -27.2% 30% -19.0%
15% -34.3% 30% -26.8%
20% -40.7% 28% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$24 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

552d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses29 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage552d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$14 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$22 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$19 +73%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$22 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 25 $23 +$27 +119%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 25 $24 +$45 +183%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 25 $31 −$31 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 25 $31 −$31 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$17 +68%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$20 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$22 +86%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$17 +68%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 24 $8 +$1 +12%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$5 +90%
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? May 11 $3 $0 +4%
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 11 $13 −$1 -5%
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliam Apr 27 $11 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Mar 01 $80 +$71 +89%
Solana Up or Down - March 1, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Mar 01 $50 +$47 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Mar 01 $220 +$182 +82%
XRP Up or Down - March 1, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Mar 01 $50 +$47 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Mar 01 $57 −$57 -99%
Bucks vs. Knicks Jan 20 $13 +$5 +37%
XRP Up or Down - December 4, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Dec 04 $108 −$108 -100%
Will October 2025 be the 3rd hottest on record? Nov 27 $12 $0 +1%
Will "Sarah's Oil" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatomete Nov 12 $12 $0 +0%
California redistricting referendum passes? Nov 10 $12 $0 +1%
Yieldbasis FDV above $500M one day after launch? Nov 04 $12 $0 +3%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 13 $12 $0 +1%
Shedeur Sanders on Browns Week 1 Roster? Sep 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. national debt hit $37 trillion in 2025? Sep 03 $12 $0 +1%
Will Ace Bailey play in the Jazz Summer League? Jul 15 $11 $0 +3%
Will Big Beautiful Bill cap gambling loss deductions? Jul 04 $12 $0 -1%
Will Trzaskowski or Nawrocki win the diaspora vote? Jun 19 $11 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $40 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $45 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $49 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $7 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $6 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $9 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $69 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $23 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $4 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $6 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $3 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.95 · official $4.95 (match) · 139 history records