Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:36:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E0 0xe00d…41d5 crypto 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate77%40W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$6
crypto 7% +$1
politics 4% −$1
other 3% $0
tech 2% +$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 52 -0.0% -9.5% 77% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses40 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage527d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $56 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink reach $16 in May? Jun 03 $35 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? May 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? May 04 $26 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? Apr 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in March? Apr 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in March? Apr 01 $35 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? Mar 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in February? Mar 03 $49 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in January? Feb 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $200 in January? Feb 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? Jan 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in December? Jan 02 $37 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November? Dec 03 $33 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in October? Nov 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 04 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in September? Oct 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 03 $35 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in August? Sep 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Sep 02 $37 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? Aug 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? Aug 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? Jul 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? Jun 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before June? Jun 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? Jun 15 $22 $0 +0%
U.S. recession before May 2025? May 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? May 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 200% and 300% on April 3 May 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Xi visit the US before May? May 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will 'Thunderbolts*' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 19 $37 $0 -0%
Will Yoo Seong-min be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 17 $90 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 15 $44 $0 -0%
Will Silviu Predoiu win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 15 $51 $0 -0%
Will UCR hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 14 $38 $0 -0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $2,800.00 again by March 31? Apr 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $8 $0 +1%
Will AC Milan win the Serie A? Mar 18 $5,500 −$6 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 04 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $99,000 on February 28? Mar 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 04 $17 $0 +2%
Will Google have the top AI model on January 31? Feb 18 $17 $0 +1%
Will Justin Trudeau be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Feb 10 $26 $0 -0%
Will another team win the Serie A? Feb 10 $18 $0 -0%
Will Benfica win the UEFA Champions League? Feb 07 $14 $0 -0%
Will BSW win the second most seats in the next German election? Jan 25 $29 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $56 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $22 29d
Will Chainlink reach $16 in May? BUY No 100¢ $35 31d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $18 62d
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? BUY No 100¢ $26 62d
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $4 91d
Will XRP reach $2.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $20 92d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $35 93d
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? BUY No 100¢ $6 121d
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in February? BUY No 100¢ $49 122d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in January? BUY No 100¢ $9 150d
Will Solana reach $200 in January? BUY No 100¢ $40 151d
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 182d
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in December? BUY No 100¢ $37 182d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $33 212d
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 241d
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in October? BUY No 100¢ $20 242d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 242d
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $16 273d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $35 273d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? BUY No 100¢ $9 301d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in August? BUY No 100¢ $20 303d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? BUY No 100¢ $28 303d
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? BUY No 100¢ $15 333d
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? BUY No 100¢ $31 334d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? BUY No 100¢ $14 363d
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $7 393d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 394d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? BUY No 100¢ $12 394d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before June? BUY No 100¢ $8 395d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.49 · official $55.49 (match) · 110 history records