Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:58:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe007…af27 sports 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$34 (-15%) realized −$55 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$127now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$8
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-39.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -33.0% -39.4% 43% 29% -20.1%
≤30d 7 -33.0% -39.4% 43% 29% -20.1%
≤90d 7 -33.0% -39.4% 43% 29% -20.1%
all 7 -33.0% -39.4% 43% 29% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.4% 29% -20.1%
10% -45.2% 0% -27.7%
15% -50.5% 0% -34.7%
20% -55.4% 0% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$127
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Lourinha: Francisco Rocha vs Fabrizio Andaloro Fabrizio Andaloro 83¢ 100¢ $106 $127 +$21 (+20%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka Jun 18 $14 +$2 +16%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally Jun 18 $2 $0 -22%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $37 +$1 +3%
ITF Samobor: Benjamin Thomas George vs Sebastian Sorger Jun 18 $25 +$5 +20%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 18 $27 −$13 -47%
ITF Ystad: Rebecca Munk Mortensen vs Madison Sieg Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka SELL Alina Korneeva 63¢ $16 41m
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka BUY Alina Korneeva 53¢ $14 42m
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally SELL Caty McNally 22¢ $2 1h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally BUY Caty McNally 27¢ $2 1h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez SELL Viktorija Golubic 63¢ $38 1h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Viktorija Golubic 60¢ $37 1h
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Corentin Moutet 21¢ $5 1h
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena SELL Sebastian Ofner 31¢ $14 1h
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Sebastian Ofner 57¢ $27 2h
ITF Samobor: Benjamin Thomas George vs Sebastian Sorger BUY Sebastian Sorger 83¢ $25 3h
ITF Ystad: Rebecca Munk Mortensen vs Madison Sieg BUY Rebecca Munk Mortensen 17¢ $3 3h
ITF Lourinha: Francisco Rocha vs Fabrizio Andaloro BUY Fabrizio Andaloro 83¢ $106 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? BUY No 0¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.25 · official $126.99 (match) · 14 history records