Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:29:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe004…cce7 crypto 67 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
Total PnL −$1,004 (-59%) realized −$588 · open −$364
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -90% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -91% what you keep after slip
Net edge-91%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$515now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$253
7 days−$426
14 days−$502
30 days−$588
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% −$528
other 16% −$241
tech 12% −$111
economics 9% −$43
finance 2% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-91.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -95.7% -96.1% 0% 0% -96.9%
≤30d 40 -90.0% -91.0% 0% 0% -89.8%
≤90d 40 -90.0% -91.0% 0% 0% -89.8%
all 40 -90.0% -91.0% 0% 0% -89.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -91.0% 0% -89.8%
10% -91.8% 0% -90.8%
15% -92.6% 0% -91.7%
20% -93.3% 0% -92.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -89% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -90% · $-wt -89% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -85% → late -95% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$15 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$515
Realized−$588
Unrealized−$364
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 40
Open positions27
Markets (closed)40 / 67
History coverage23d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $23 $49 +$25 (+109%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in June? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $34 $46 +$11 (+33%)
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in June? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $42 $45 +$3 (+8%)
Will Solana reach $100 in June? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $44 $42 −$2 (-5%)
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $84 $38 −$46 (-54%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $38 $31 −$7 (-18%)
Will Solana reach $110 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $39 $29 −$10 (-27%)
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $32 $28 −$4 (-14%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $176 in June? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $29 $24 −$5 (-18%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $27 $24 −$3 (-11%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $40 $23 −$17 (-43%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+2%)
Will Solana reach $120 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $26 $20 −$6 (-24%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $21 $12 −$9 (-41%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? No 1¢ 1¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-11%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $13 $12 −$2 (-13%)
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $264 in June? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $11 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $14 $10 −$4 (-27%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $19 $7 −$12 (-64%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $40 $7 −$34 (-83%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-24%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-25%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $9 $4 −$4 (-50%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-40%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $7 $4 −$4 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 14 $34 −$34 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in May? Jun 14 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 5? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on June 1? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Solana reach $120 in May? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $17 −$6 -38%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 16? Jun 13 $9 −$7 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $19 −$18 -94%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $26 −$26 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $17 −$16 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $8 −$7 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? Jun 10 $15 −$12 -81%
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 June 1-7? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 June 1-7? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 June 1-7? Jun 09 $11 −$11 -100%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $8 −$8 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $23 −$22 -96%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $228 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 09 $50 −$48 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $15 −$14 -94%
Will Solana reach $130 in June? Jun 03 $19 −$15 -77%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 June 1-7? Jun 02 $12 −$11 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 01 $25 −$16 -62%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $8 by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $27 −$3 -11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $9 −$8 -94%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $11 −$1 -9%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May? May 29 $27 −$25 -94%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $16 −$16 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 26 $17 −$16 -94%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? May 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 25 $10 −$9 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? May 24 $12 −$11 -94%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in June? May 24 $19 −$7 -40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 57m
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $7 58m
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 58m
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $14 59m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $7 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? BUY No 1¢ $7 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $11 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? BUY No 1¢ $7 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $17 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $16 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $23 1h
Will Solana reach $120 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $14 1h
Will Solana reach $110 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $9 1h
Will Solana reach $100 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 1h
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $11 1h
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $17 1h
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $16 1h
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY Yes 23¢ $113 25h
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY Yes 23¢ $105 25h
Will Solana reach $110 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $9 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? SELL No 3¢ $7 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 16? SELL No 0¢ $1 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? BUY No 7¢ $7 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 16? BUY No 2¢ $9 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? BUY No 6¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 9¢ $19 2d
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 64¢ $26 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $12 3d
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $16 3d
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $514.53 · official $516.07 (match) · 141 history records