Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:22:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe002…33e3 other 299 markets active 1h ago coverage 176d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$213 (-1%) realized −$213 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate62%185W / 113L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$52
7 days+$13
14 days−$54
30 days−$177
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$21
world 9% −$76
crypto 7% −$210
sports 4% +$40
politics 1% −$3
economics 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +21.3% +9.8% 69% 54% -7.4%
≤30d 66 -4.1% -13.2% 64% 50% -15.1%
≤90d 145 +0.7% -8.8% 68% 37% -10.8%
all 298 +0.1% -9.5% 62% 33% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 33% -11.0%
10% -18.1% 21% -19.5%
15% -26.0% 15% -27.3%
20% -33.3% 12% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$17 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$213
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses185 / 113
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)298 / 299
History coverage176d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 298 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $21 +$9 +44%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $35 +$1 +4%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $28 −$18 -62%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 +$28 +70%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $63 −$23 -36%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $11 +$10 +90%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$24 +238%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 +$15 +58%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $111 +$4 +4%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $13 −$13 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $99 +$14 +14%
Will Belarus win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $19 −$18 -98%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $18 +$1 +6%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $17 +$1 +5%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $78 −$77 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $40 +$37 +92%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $93 −$92 -99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $20 −$19 -92%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $10 −$5 -46%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $40 +$3 +8%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $50 +$31 +62%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $238 +$41 +17%
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $42 −$38 -91%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $8 +$6 +74%
Will United States win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $46 +$26 +58%
Will Germany win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $27 +$3 +12%
Will Poland win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $10 −$9 -93%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $10 $0 +1%
Will Czechia win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $40 +$12 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $33 +$7 +21%
Will Singapore win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $39 +$7 +18%
Will Mexico win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $40 +$26 +64%
Will El Gouna SC win on 2026-05-28? May 30 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $34 +$7 +21%
Will Ghazl El Mahalla SC win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $66 +$8 +12%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $45 +$21 +46%
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-05-28? May 28 $39 +$6 +16%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $7 +$7 +109%
Will Saint-Etienne vs. Nice end in a draw? May 26 $10 +$12 +116%
Will Morocco win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $31 +$3 +11%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $97 −$65 -68%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $19 −$13 -71%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 +$10 +98%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $100 +$12 +12%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $101 +$58 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $31 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $21 15h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 100¢ $21 15h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 86¢ $19 15h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 15¢ $8 15h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 16h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 16h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 17h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $51 37h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 23¢ $11 37h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $28 37h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $69 37h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 58¢ $40 40h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $40 40h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $63 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $11 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 79¢ $40 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $25 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 98¢ $115 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $111 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $13 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 94¢ $113 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $99 3d
Will Belarus win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 36¢ $19 7d
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? SELL No 100¢ $19 7d
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? BUY No 94¢ $18 7d
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 54¢ $18 7d
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 50¢ $17 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.71 · official $30.71 (match) · 732 history records