Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:02:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E0 0xe002…152b sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,693 (+49%) realized +$6,717 · open −$24
Gross ROI / mkt +209% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +148% what you keep after slip
Net edge+148%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$1,146per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$176est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$976now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$5,357
other 1% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+179.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +209.1% +179.7% 64% 55% +27.3%
≤30d 11 +209.1% +179.7% 64% 55% +27.3%
≤90d 11 +209.1% +179.7% 64% 55% +27.3%
all 11 +209.1% +179.7% 64% 55% +27.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +179.7% 55% +27.3%
10% ← realistic here +152.9% 55% +15.2%
15% +128.5% 45% +4.0%
20% +106.1% 45% -6.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +209% · $-wt +41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,062 vs −$563 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.3 per $1 lost it wins $3.3
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$976
Realized+$6,717
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Est. fees paid−$176
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage4d
Avg bet$1,146
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 62¢ 60¢ $1,000 $976 −$24 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $1,007 +$326 +32%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $1,005 +$98 +10%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $2,031 −$1,850 -91%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $2,010 +$1,483 +74%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $5,051 +$2,536 +50%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $206 −$200 -97%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $102 +$39 +38%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $1,022 +$2,682 +262%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $102 +$269 +263%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $1,011 55m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 91¢ $1,104 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 82¢ $1,005 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over $181 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 35¢ $1,019 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 61¢ $1,012 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $1,007 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $235 21h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $100 21h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $83 21h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $565 21h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $17 21h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $1,010 22h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes $103 22h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $7,587 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 66¢ $5,051 24h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $103 25h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming $103 28h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming $103 28h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 25¢ $9 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 25¢ $22 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 25¢ $1 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 25¢ $3 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 25¢ $0 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 25¢ $10 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 25¢ $3 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 25¢ $15 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 25¢ $26 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 25¢ $4 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 25¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $975.81 · official $975.81 (match) · 40 history records