Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:44:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe000…cbb1 finance 154 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 60d only
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7,160 (-46%) realized −$1,493 · open −$5,667
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate43%59W / 77L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day54.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$4,230now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$575
7 days−$264
14 days−$264
30 days−$2,150
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% −$3,240
finance 11% −$68
other 11% −$3,454
economics 10% −$1,370
politics 2% −$312
sports 1% −$125
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +9.2% -1.2% 38% 25% -21.8%
≤30d 14 +127.6% +105.9% 36% 29% -21.1%
≤90d 136 +29.9% +17.5% 43% 32% -20.9%
all 136 +29.9% +17.5% 43% 32% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +17.5% 32% -20.9%
10% ← realistic here +6.3% 28% -28.5%
15% -4.0% 24% -35.4%
20% -13.4% 22% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt -47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late +31% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
13.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$76 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$4,230
Realized−$1,493
Unrealized−$5,667
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses59 / 77
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions40
Markets (closed)136 / 154
History coverage61d ⚠
Avg bet$101
Trades / day54.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 40 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 64¢ 36¢ $1,072 $613 −$459 (-43%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? Yes 69¢ 17¢ $1,714 $423 −$1,291 (-75%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 67¢ 46¢ $583 $397 −$186 (-32%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 54¢ 19¢ $987 $345 −$642 (-65%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027? Yes 36¢ 6¢ $1,422 $255 −$1,167 (-82%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $374 $247 −$127 (-34%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $326 $190 −$136 (-42%)
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $181 $178 −$3 (-2%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 36¢ 36¢ $171 $172 +$2 (+1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? No 23¢ 28¢ $134 $160 +$26 (+20%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027? Yes 24¢ 5¢ $679 $155 −$525 (-77%)
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? Yes 48¢ 18¢ $416 $151 −$265 (-64%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House Yes 15¢ 18¢ $115 $144 +$28 (+25%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 53¢ 26¢ $285 $139 −$146 (-51%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $76 $78 +$1 (+2%)
Will Latvija Pirmajā Vietā (LPV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? Yes 29¢ 26¢ $84 $77 −$7 (-9%)
Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027? Yes 22¢ 10¢ $172 $74 −$99 (-57%)
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $59 $60 +$2 (+3%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No 76¢ 70¢ $57 $52 −$5 (-8%)
Revolut IPO before 2027? No 93¢ 94¢ $46 $47 +$0 (+1%)
Will Jaunā Vienotība (JV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? No 71¢ 80¢ $39 $44 +$4 (+11%)
Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $44 $43 −$1 (-2%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027? Yes 18¢ 4¢ $151 $38 −$114 (-75%)
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 83¢ 41¢ $62 $31 −$31 (-50%)
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? Yes 36¢ 6¢ $130 $22 −$108 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 19 $31 −$39 -124%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Jun 19 $48 −$101 -212%
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 19 $391 −$391 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 19 $23 −$37 -164%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 15 $11 $0 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $171 −$104 -61%
Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Jun 15 $6 $0 +4%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 14 $6 +$16 +288%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 14 $213 +$399 +187%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $1,235 −$1,373 -111%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 24 $254 −$107 -42%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $122 +$27 +22%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $496 −$49 -10%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 24 $629 +$72 +12%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 24 $825 −$456 -55%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 20 $386 −$177 -46%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 19 $354 −$201 -57%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? May 14 $42 +$113 +267%
Will AECOM (ACM) beat quarterly earnings? May 12 $7 +$3 +51%
Will Yelp (YELP) beat quarterly earnings? May 08 $6 +$4 +75%
Will Airbnb (ABNB) beat quarterly earnings? May 08 $10 +$23 +239%
Will Teleflex (TFX) beat quarterly earnings? May 07 $18 +$42 +230%
Will Beyond Meat (BYND) beat quarterly earnings? May 06 $14 +$13 +93%
Will Chegg (CHGG) beat quarterly earnings? May 06 $14 +$26 +194%
Will Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) beat quarterly earnings? May 06 $16 +$4 +27%
Will MetLife (MET) beat quarterly earnings? May 06 $16 +$24 +150%
Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Fenerbahce May 06 $104 −$104 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 06 $4 −$2 -42%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 06 $95 +$97 +102%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 06 $36 +$55 +152%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 06 $94 +$18 +20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 06 $14 −$4 -25%
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? May 05 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Cigna (CI) beat quarterly earnings? May 05 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Alphabet (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings? May 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Waystar (WAY) beat quarterly earnings? May 05 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Penske Automotive Group (PAG) beat quarterly earnings? May 05 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Caterpillar (CAT) beat quarterly earnings? May 05 $16 −$16 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? May 05 $8 −$8 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? May 05 $14 −$14 -100%
Will General Dynamics (GD) beat quarterly earnings? May 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United Bankshares (UBSI) beat quarterly earnings? May 05 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Aflac (AFL) beat quarterly earnings? May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Pfizer (PFE) beat quarterly earnings? May 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will Domino's Pizza (DPZ) beat quarterly earnings? May 05 $63 −$19 -29%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 05 $26 $0 -1%
Will Aptiv (APTV) beat quarterly earnings? May 05 $4 −$4 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? May 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Humana (HUM) beat quarterly earnings? May 05 $32 −$24 -75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 37¢ $19 47m
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 37¢ $15 48m
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL No 28¢ $52 1h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 52¢ $32 43h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 52¢ $11 43h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 52¢ $16 43h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 52¢ $21 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 22¢ $27 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 22¢ $53 43h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 59¢ $17 43h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 59¢ $6 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 22¢ $6 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 22¢ $6 46h
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $5 2d
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 2d
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meetin BUY No 6¢ $2 2d
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? BUY No 75¢ $8 3d
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? BUY No 76¢ $4 3d
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? BUY No 76¢ $15 3d
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? BUY No 77¢ $8 3d
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? BUY No 77¢ $23 3d
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? SELL Yes 26¢ $4 3d
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $3 3d
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $0 3d
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meetin BUY No 6¢ $2 3d
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $8 3d
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? SELL Yes 26¢ $7 3d
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $9 3d
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? SELL Yes 27¢ $3 3d
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,229.76 · official $4,229.89 (match) · 3500 history records