Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:48:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdff8…f8c1 other 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$172 (-12%) realized −$172 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%16W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$20
14 days−$35
30 days−$265
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$198
sports 37% +$29
crypto 1% −$17
politics 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-30.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -28.8% -35.6% 50% 50% -21.4%
≤30d 22 -21.0% -28.5% 41% 41% -43.5%
≤90d 43 -23.3% -30.6% 37% 35% -22.6%
all 43 -23.3% -30.6% 37% 35% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.6% 35% -22.6%
10% -37.2% 21% -30.0%
15% -43.3% 19% -36.8%
20% -48.8% 16% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$18 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$172
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses16 / 27
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage47d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $72 +$10 +14%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $28 +$20 +70%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $26 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $17 −$17 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +23%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -5%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $14 −$1 -5%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$5 -18%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $24 −$13 -56%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $11 +$13 +114%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $9 +$2 +20%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$11 -55%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $17 +$4 +22%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $12 +$4 +36%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $16 −$1 -6%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -97%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $13 +$3 +19%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $60 −$46 -78%
Will Liechtenstein win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $14 −$14 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $60 +$12 +20%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $224 −$173 -77%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $109 +$126 +116%
Roland Garros ATP: James Duckworth vs Rafael Jodar May 27 $103 −$6 -6%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants May 27 $111 +$3 +3%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians May 27 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $32 −$14 -44%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $5 −$1 -15%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? May 13 $17 −$17 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-21? May 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $20 +$10 +51%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Aberdeen FC win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $2 +$2 +77%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $13 +$11 +82%
Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Levante UD end in a draw? May 12 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. SC Braga end in a draw? May 12 $21 +$45 +215%
Will Vitória SC vs. Casa Pia AC end in a draw? May 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $83 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $72 4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $48 4h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 24¢ $24 4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 58¢ $28 6h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 6h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 9h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $17 13d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 37¢ $13 13d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 13d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 13d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 13d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 97¢ $4 14d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 94¢ $4 14d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 14d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 14d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 40¢ $21 14d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $9 14d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $9 14d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 14d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 13¢ $11 14d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 28¢ $24 14d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $11 15d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $0 15d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 86¢ $11 15d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $9 15d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 25¢ $9 15d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 15d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 85¢ $21 16d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $17 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 83 history records